The clouds and rain continue to shift across the area as we head through the afternoon. Mainly locations across our viewing area have picked up 0.5-0.75 inches of rain so far today, with some areas nearing an inch in spots. The steady rain may shift out of the area from west to east over the next few hours, but rain chances don't go away. Meanwhile, temperatures are hanging out in the low to mid 50s this afternoon as the rain moves through the area.
The widespread, steady rain will begin to shift east of the area between now and about 5:00pm. However, pockets of locally heavy downpours will remain in place here and there into the evening, and then as warmer air moves in overnight, we may see a few scattered thunderstorms into the overnight and the early hours of Tuesday morning. None of these are expected to be severe. Temperatures will actually climb into the lower 60s overnight as a stronger southerly wind pushes the frontal boundary back north as a warm front.
Rain will be much more scattered, if not isolated, during the day on Tuesday as the main frontal forcing shifts to our north. However, we can't rule out a few showers here and there. Daytime highs will be a good bit warmer, into the upper 60s and lower 70s over southern middle Tennessee, and northwest Alabama may briefly flirt with the mid 70s! As we head into the evening and overnight of Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm activity looks to increase in coverage again. However, the steadier rain may stay mostly to our north, generally closer to I-40. Scattered showers and storms will be possible as far south as north Alabama and Mississippi though.
That stalled frontal boundary waffles around the TN and OH Valleys through the week, offering daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday into Friday, before it sweeps back southward as a cold front and then washes out just near or south of our area. That will provide drier and a bit cooler air into the weekend, but the chance of showers won't completely go away, with the frontal boundary not too far away. In the meantime, daytime highs through Thursday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s before that cooler air moves in late week.
That frontal boundary may come back north early next week ahead of an ejecting storm system. There is a good bit of model disagreement (especially the GFS vs Euro) with respect to the layout of the large scale pattern, but most models and ensembles have been leaning toward the Euro the past 24-48 hours, and the Euro handled the last storm system we had better. The latest run of the Euro puts a dynamic storm system through our area around Tuesday of next week that would have to be watched for the potential for strong storms. Whether that strong storm threat materializes will largely be dictated by how much moisture can come north from the Gulf of Mexico. That will be determined by whether the GFS is closer to right with offshore troughing over the weekend that would reduce moisture ahead of the next system, or whether the Euro, Canadian, and many of the ensembles are right with the idea of ridging off the East Coast instead, which would allow for greater moisture to come north ahead of that system. We will know more in the coming days...