Welp, the heat is returning. Strap in!
...but first, today - it's been a little unsettled, but a lot of us remain dry. Here at the studios in Lawrenceburg, we hit the lower 90s today, and the dewpoint was near 70... pretty humid, but that is low compared to this coming week. Some storms remain possible through today and into the evening - I suspect boundaries laid down may help initiate a few more thunderclappers through this time frame. We cool down tonight, likely into the lower 70s. Clouds clear out, but some models have spurious showers, but they are VERY isolated, and not likely for most of us.
Through the morning tomorrow, conditions will be highly similar to today - warm, humid, and partly cloudy. This gives way to the possibility of MORE storms tomorrow, which look quite dense in nature according to the models. Watch out for these, as summertime storms can put down frequent lightning and locally intense rain. They could be anywhere, too - while models show the general idea, it is somewhat random as to where PRECISELY any given storm decides to go up. They will likely clear up faster than they did today, and by the evening we look good for fireworks and cookouts. It'll be gross and humid, though, so beware of the mosquitos... we clear out overnight, and we begin the warming trend.
This warming trend is aided by the fact that, while there exists some chance through the week, rain looks to back off for most of us. It really looks like we're into the summertime pattern of low rain chances, but any given spot could get a random inch or two in the span of a couple hours from popup storms. I wouldn't bank on that for most of us, especially through the midweek, but Monday into Tuesday looks like it may have elevated rain chances.
The real story for the week, however, is the return of this absolutely BRUTAL heat... though the temps stay in the 90s, the dewpoints rise and rise and rise, and by the midweek, heat indexes are back to 105+. A heat advisory wouldn't shock me at all, because it's gonna get rough out there. Your sweat is gonna be sweatin'!
The 7 day helps illustrate this trend. Don't let the 90s deceive you! Heat indexes will be what gets you this week. Actual heat begins to creep in by the end of the week, as well as some rain, if models are to be trusted at this point, but this remains in flux. The weather to watch this week remains the heat, and this weekend, the popup storms - stay safe this Independence day week!