Weekend rain chances, plus the coldest air of the season so far.
Well after quite the stormy day yesterday, today is a stunner. Beautiful blue skies overhead, and a chilly breeze out of the north with temperatures topping out around 70 degrees.
Today and tomorrow will be dry, and Friday will be a touch warmer in the afternoon. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 70s. If you have any Friday night plans, it'll be pretty chilly, with temperatures in the 50s after sunset.
The first half of Saturday is looking nice, but more clouds will fill the sky as the day progresses, and eventually rain chances enter the forecast. I don't think we will be seeing thunderstorms this weekend. The GFS model and the ECMWF model have two different potential outcomes, but both models indicate a cold front bringing us more much needed rain.
The GFS model is a little drier in its output for this weekend. Nonetheless, it still shows a few showers Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday. The GFS model has the cold front moving out of the region by Monday morning, with just a leftover cloud deck to start the day. The GFS shows a trace to 0.10" throughout the Tennessee Valley from Saturday to Sunday night.
The ECMWF model is slightly heavier with the rainfall associated with the cold front. There still isn't much instability to work with so I think it will be all rain, and no thunderstorms. Here, the bulk of the rain is focused late Sunday. This model also has the rain moving out by Monday morning with a leftover cloud deck. The ECMWF shows a 0.25" to 0.45" throughout the Tennessee Valley from Saturday to Sunday night.
After this cold front moves through, our temperatures will come crashing down. After Monday,
highs will struggle to reach the 60s! I fully expect us to stay in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. I do think we stay below 80 degrees Saturday due to increased cloud cover, but Saturday will be a little on the warmer side, and the warmest air we will see for close to a week.
Low temperatures by the middle of next week have a very high possibility of dipping below freezing. Right now I'm calling for 30 degrees Wednesday morning, but isolated upper 20s wouldn't shock me in low valleys. We also remain dry for the rest of the week across the Tennessee Valley, after Sunday night. Whether you like it or not, we ARE getting closer to winter! (I don't like it.)
