Weekend looks hit-or-miss - but severe weather chances increase this week.
It's definitely no taste of Spring, but today could be worse - we've stayed fairly mediated temperature-wise today, and I don't suspect many of us will get much higher than about low-mid 50s for today, but it sure beats 30s. Clouds linger for those of us who are still dry, but by this evening, I don't think that'll be many of us. We have some scattered rain showers moving in from the south, and that'll only increase in coverage throughout the night. By tonight, we're all getting a solid soaker, and maybe even some scattered sleet within that. Don't expect any travel impacts with that, but it may be a nice little reminder of winter for those of you who miss it! Tomorrow looks better, thankfully...
By the time we're heading into church tomorrow, it's going to be brisk, but nevertheless dry, with highs creeping back into the mid-50s, we're fairly seasonal, and this looks to stick around for at least a couple days before we start to creep back into a shift in the pattern towards the active by midweek. Monday looks much like Sunday, if not a little warmer - expect clear to partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the lower 60s.
By Tuesday, that warm, moist air moving into the Valley makes itself known by way of a system moving through in the evening hours, yielding our next chances of showers and perhaps a scattered storm here and there. Not the most impactful system ever, but it wouldn't hurt to keep an umbrella by your side if you have any errands to run through Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temps for our Tuesday look to stick in the lower 60s, but we begin a big warming trend in the following couple days.
By Wednesday, even more moisture surges into the Valley and we're beginning to pick up more robust chances at storms for our afternoon and evening. By the looks of things, these storms will be draped east to west along something of a fake warm front that lifts across the Tennessee Valley, and only acts as a primer for the main show, so to speak, the following day.
We've been discussing this system for a couple days now, so I'll go over what we're looking at for this Thursday system -
Models are confident and have converged on a large scale pattern that is fairly conducive for widespread chances of severe weather. Models usually don't have much in the way of agreement at this range, so when they begin to all hone in on similar solutions, you begin to appreciate it as something that may be worth keeping an eye on.
Likewise, even for the range we're at (5+ days), the parameters outlined by these models seem to suggest the chance for various modes of severe weather, including straight-line winds in excess of 60mph, hail 1" or greater in size, and the chance for tornadoes. As we get closer, we can clarify more as to the magnitude of the threats, but the face-value presentation of the data we see suggests that all threats may be on the table to one extent or another.
This all being said, we are TOO FAR OUT to give specifics on a city-by-city basis, and we are too far out to specify exactly how substantial the threat is for these modes of severe weather. When you are this many days out, a lot can (and often does change) in the forecast. At this juncture, the global models say one thing about moisture flow, but the closer-range, higher-resolution models may say something different. All this is to say that there is no reason to panic, but with this lead time, you should start considering your severe weather safety plans.
Even not withstanding this pending severe weather threat, we are approaching the time of year in which the average monthly tornado count begins to increase ahead of spring tornado season. February is among the top 5 most active months severe weather-wise for the Tennessee Valley as a whole, and should be treated as such.
SOME THINGS TO REMEMBER:
You can always find the latest local weather info on our TN Valley Weather App, which is a free download on the Apple app store and Google Play.
One of the most tried and true methods of receiving urgent warning information is by having a NOAA Weather Radio in your house. If a warning is issued at any time of day, these reliable tools will blare a very loud alert tone that can wake a dead man, and relays to you the relevant information for the warning.
HAVE A SAFETY PLAN READY TO GO IN CASE YOU NEED TO ACT. For example, if you're going to shelter, you'll want to wear shoes so as to avoid possibly sharp debris, if the worst-case scenario is realized. When sheltering, you always want to go to the lowest part of your house (basement or underground is best!), away from windows and doors, and away from outside walls.
If you want more information on severe weather safety tips, you can go back to Mondays blog post by Fred to see more detailed information about the best course of action.
To round it all off, the 7 day forecast paints the picture well - we dry out for Sunday, and so we begin our warming trend - rain lingers for our midweek, culminating in that storm threat we're watching Thursday. Behind it, colder temperatures... but let's get through the busy week ahead first!