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We're warming up, but at the cost of unsettled weather this week.


We're on our way up in temperatures as we exit the weekend, with some of us breaking 60 before noon! This will probably be the last completely clear day for several days with these mild conditions, as we continue to warm up but at the cost of a stormy week. The systems this week will be quite dynamic - threats from flooding to severe weather span the next several days.

Chief among the concerns that we've had for the last few days is the flooding potential from the cumulative precipitation over the week - the totals seem to be tapering off *slightly*, but the threat still assuredly exists. I'd expect widespread 3-5 inches across the valley, especially on the Tennessee side, with isolated spots perhaps seeing more. This is a little bit lower than previous model guidance suggested, but still consider the threat real as you head into the workweek.

Another threat that has materialized over the last few days - namely for Tuesday - is a severe weather threat. It seems that unseasonably warm temperatures always seem to usher in unsettled weather down here, and this is no different... the primary threat is damaging winds and subsequent localized flooding, but you can't rule out an isolated tornado or two with systems as dynamic as these, so pay close attention heading into Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The extended term looks like more of the same - unsettled weather until the weekend, when temperatures begin to creep closer to seasonal highs and rain moves out - more specifically, a brief respite comes Wednesday with rain chances decreasing giving way to cloudy conditions, with Thursday seeing the return of precipitation to the valley; this is followed by frontal passage through Friday as this final wet system moves out, cooling us down and clearing us out at last.

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