Warming trend starts today. Late week rain chances. Stronger storms early next week?
We're getting off to a chilly start on this Tuesday morning, but not nearly as cold as we have been the past several days. Temperatures across much of our area are in the mid to upper 20s as of the sunrise hour, with lower 30s back west of the Natchez Trace Parkway. Skies are starting off partly cloudy this morning, and that sunshine will start to improve road conditions. Road temperatures early this morning are in the low to mid 20s, leading to the potential for slick spots the next few hours, but solar radiation on the pavement will improve things as we head into the mid to late morning.
Temperatures look to climb above freezing after the 8:00 hour this morning, and road conditions will rapidly improve from there on out. Shaded areas may take a little longer this morning, but temperatures climb into the low to mid 40s this afternoon, and that should mean rapidly improving conditions for everyone.
Daytime highs areawide will be in the 40s across our viewing area by the afternoon, with southern middle Tennessee in the low to mid 40s, and northwest Alabama and northeast Mississippi well into the mid to maybe even upper 40s, with upper 40s most likely south of the Tennessee River. We have one more night ahead of us below freezing, with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper 20s. From there on out, we are above freezing... even during the overnight... for the next seven days.
Daytime highs climb into the 50s as we head into Wednesday and the latter part of the week as a stronger southerly wind sets up ahead of the next weather system. This will mean increasing moisture, which will keep overnight lows well above freezing as well starting Wednesday night. A few showers may work into the area Thursday into Thursday night, but a better chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive Friday into Saturday as the weather system moves through. We don't expect any severe storms with this system as it affects our area, but some locally heavy downpours are possible. Daytime highs over the weekend will climb into the low to mid 60s.
That upper-level storm system ejects to the northeast on Saturday, leaving the front to washout near or just south of our area and the deeper moisture to be waiting to move back northward Monday in advance of a stronger storm system ejecting out into the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley early next week. Even warmer temperatures are likely next Monday and Tuesday, with daytime highs into at least the upper 60s... if not into the lower 70s. The most recent model runs have slowed the system down, and it looks to approach our area Tuesday into Tuesday night based on the latest data. There are still some question marks about the exact evolution of the system, but from an early large scale look, this looks like the type of system that would have to be watched for the potential for strong or possibly even severe storms. Unlike the last few systems this month and in November, it looks like the warm sector will be much farther north inland over the Southeast, with low to mid 60 dewpoints already projected by model data to make it well north into at least Tennessee.
The Storm Prediction Center has not outlined any risk areas yet, but they mention that they very well may need to in later outlooks as model data becomes more consistent with some of the details of the storm system. We will be watching carefully in the coming days!