Not too bad of a weather day across the Tennessee Valley on this Monday. Temperatures are climbing up into the low to mid 70s early this afternoon amid a mix of sun and clouds. Winds are southerly, but not overly strong. The main issue so far today is the pollen if you are an allergy sufferer.
Temperatures will climb a few more degrees as we head through the afternoon, with everyone topping out in the low to mid 70s. A stray shower or two is possible this afternoon or evening near or north of Highway 412 in middle Tennessee, but the vast majority of us will stay dry.
That changes in a big way during the early morning hours of Tuesday. Even before sunrise, the next storm system moves into the area and brings a widespread round of heavy rain and rumbles of thunder. The Storm Prediction Center technically has a Level 1 of 5 risk of severe storms up into north Alabama, but we think all of the severe weather will be south of the Birmingham area. We do not anticipate severe storms in our area. We may have to watch out for localized street flooding during the morning hours though. That activity shifts east by midday, and partial clearing into the afternoon should once again get us into the low to maybe mid 70s.
For our local area of southern middle Tennessee and north Alabama, Wednesday is the day we will need to be on guard for strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center already has much of our viewing area in a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe storms for Wednesday, with a Level 3 of 5 as close as Hartselle and Huntsville. A cold front moves into the area during the midday and early afternoon, and depending on how much lift there is ahead of the front, a few isolated supercell storms may develop and track eastward across the area. Not everybody will get storms on Wednesday, but for those that do, these storms may be capable of 60-70 mph, quarter to half dollar size hail, and there would be at least some degree of a tornado risk. This is not going to be like last week when a solid line of storms affects everyone. These storms will be scattered and some areas may not even get a storm. This will also not be like last week in that we won't be watching these to our west for hours before they get here. These may develop right on top of us around midday into the early afternoon before shifting east into the higher threat areas. That means you will have to be extra vigilant and listen for warnings on Wednesday. The main timeframe looks to be from Noon to 6:00 PM in our viewing area.
The cold front moves through Wednesday evening, and we're back into the mid 40s for morning lows by Thursday, and then only getting into the lower 60s by afternoon. And then, we only work up to the mid 50s for Friday and Saturday, with morning lows back into the 30s! The colder air hasn't gotten out of here for good just yet...