Warmer Conditions Approach, but Strong Storms Possible by Midweek...
It feels like it's been a long time coming, but we're finally drying out (at least for the time being), and warming up at last over these next few days. All this warm air surging into the Tennessee Valley comes at a cost (which we'll discuss later in this post), but in the mean time, we enjoy lower 60s for highs today, with partly cloudy skies and breezy southerlies sticking around (check out that 64 in Savannah, our early leader in temps today!). Looking cooler tonight, we'll say mid-30s for lows, with clouds clearing through tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow looks like another great day, all and all, with temperatures making their way squarely back into the mid-60s for a good portion of us by tomorrow afternoon. Clouds look to stay away for the time being, but we're still definitely getting that warm, moist air moving into the Tennessee Valley and we can surely feel that by way of the breezy conditions we've had for a day or two now. This looks to continue for the beginning of our workweek, with winds out of the SSE at 5-10mph, with a gust here and there maybe eeping up to 15. Not great for those of us with poofy hair, but a cool breeze is always pretty enjoyable otherwise. Lows Monday Night into Tuesday Morning look warmer, staying in the 40s. Clear skies to report for that timeframe as well.
By Tuesday, we're starting to see the consequences of the warm air that has been saturating the Valley - temperatures will be climbing fairly quickly (highs probably returning to the mid-60s for most of us Wednesday, with sporadic upper 60s easily possible for some), and by the afternoon, we look to return to a regime with more cloud cover moving in from the SW. The wind continues to rip out of the S, with sustained winds beginning to increase (10-15mph), with some gusts up to 20-25mph possible at times. All things considered, Tuesday doesn't look too bad, and looks to stay dry, with some shower chances creeping slowly in by the very late hours of Tuesday, but that is looking less and less like a Tuesday issue and more and more like a Wednesday issue with our next big system that moves through.
You can really tell on the 5 day trends that we've been getting that southerly air in the Valley, as we climb steadily through the first half of the workweek, and will realistically very likely be looking at temperatures around 70 for our Wednesday.
If we could have some 70s and sunshine, that would be great, but you may be picking up that I am just leading up to the big whopper for this weeks forecast period... Wednesday evening.
For our Wednesday, that warm air is in full force and is getting our temperatures up to the aforementioned highs, but unfortunately, we're introducing the chance of rain for our Wednesday afternoon, and by Wednesday evening, it looks like the system moves through - in a big way.
Looking more and more like the chance of strong storms is there for the Tennessee Valley, likely in that crucial Wednesday evening-night timeframe. Right now, we don't think that entails a major severe threat, but don't be surprised to see a few gusts in excess of 40mph, torrential downpours and frequent lightning with some of the stronger storms as we head into our Wednesday. Flooding is not looking like the biggest concern, but if you do see a low spot with some water over it, err on the side of caution and find another way around. We'll keep you update over the next couple days as the models continue to evolve this system as it approaches us.
Subsequent days look to cool off nicely; Thu (especially afternoon and beyond)-Fri both look to get us back to drier conditions, with northerly winds returning and cooling us off back to about where we should be by the end of the week. We'll likely be back to freezing territory in the overnight hours of Friday and into the weekend, with some very light showers possible as this system wraps around. No impacts expected with this at all, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a few snowflakes falling from the sky with that little impulse of precipitation. Keep an eye out for that!
Wrapping it up with a look at the 7 day - it looks like a split week, beginning with a taste of spring, reminding us by midweek of what spring usually consists of, and then knocking us back to winter by next weekend. Lets keep an eye on that storm system moving through Wednesday evening, and have a great week in the meantime.