Warm for now. A few showers along the way. BIG change to colder air by the weekend!
It's warm to downright toasty across the area this afternoon, depending on where you are. Temperatures have generally been in the low to mid 70s this afternoon over southern Tennessee, but we've been in the upper 70s to evening lower 80s over northwestern Alabama! We've had a few isolated showers dotting the landscape, thanks to the stalled frontal boundary nearby. Other than that, we are mostly cloudy on the Tennessee side of the state line, and partly sunny down over north AL/MS.
Daytime highs today look to top out in the mid to maybe upper 70s over southern middle Tennessee and near or within the lower 80s over northwest Alabama. A few more isolated showers are possible, but most of us will stay dry. Overnight, the mild air mass stays in place, and we only get down to the upper 50s and lower 60s for overnight lows.
We expect warm weather to stick around the next few days. Daytime highs will be near or into the lower 80s for most everyone across the area on Tuesday, and then we get back to the low to mid 70s through Friday as Subtropical Storm Nicole to our southeast helps weaken the ridge across the area. A stray shower can't be completely ruled out Tuesday, but the chance of rain is only around 10%. A few more showers will be possible Thursday into Friday as Nicole moves up into Georgia ahead of a big cold front that moves into our area for the weekend. Nicole's track to our east might help keep us dry late week though, and there's a very real chance we may be able to remove those rain chances as we assess new data.
Then, a big cold front moves in Friday, knocking daytime highs down to January standards for the weekend, with us struggling to reach 50 on Saturday and likely only getting into the 40s for Sunday into early next week. We will also be down into the 20s again for overnight lows as early as Saturday night. Long range outlooks from the NWS suggest this cold air may stick around well into mid month!
Meanwhile, you did read correctly above that we have Subtropical Storm Nicole on the board. The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until November 30th. It is not often that we see U.S. impacting storms in the month of November, but it definitely isn't unheard of either. Nicole is currently forecast to become a minimal hurricane as it approaches southeast Florida by midweek, before turning back northeast over southern Georgia into the Carolinas. Nicole will NOT have a direct impact on our weather here in the Tennessee Valley outside of northeasterly winds and possibly reinforcing dry air ahead of that late week front.