Updated information on this evening's severe storm threat
All is quiet across the immediate viewing area as of the time this blog post is being typed. The earlier showers and rumbles of thunder that were working across north Alabama into southern Tennessee have shifted east of I-65 and away from our viewing area. However, thunderstorms are organizing off to the northwest over western Tennessee and into northeastern Arkansas, and these are the storms that will move into the area later this afternoon and through the evening hours.
As the earlier activity is shifting out, cloud breaks are increasing in coverage across southern Tennessee into northwest Alabama, as evidenced by visible satellite imagery. This is allowing temperatures to warm back into the mid/upper 70s, with lower 80s just off to the west. When coupled with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s, this is making for a fairly unstable atmosphere developing ahead of that line of storms.
The midday update from the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe storms across the entire viewing area for late this afternoon through the evening. The main threats are a few storms being capable of straight-line wind gusts of 40-65 mph. However, small hail and an isolated tornado can't be completely ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely, and a few spots could see over 1 inch of rain. However, because of the dry ground lately, the risk of flooding will be very low. Cloud-to-ground lightning will naturally be a threat with any thunderstorm.
The HRRR model seems to be doing a good job with the overall depiction of where things stand now, and that gives us confidence in what it shows as this evolves later today and into the evening. You can scroll through the series of images above to get an hour by hour breakdown of how the model projects the storms to evolve. The HRRR has storms knocking on the door of our in our western Tennessee counties as early as 4-5pm and then moving across southern middle Tennessee through 6-7 pm. After that, a second main line along the cold front looks to move through between 8pm and midnight. Either line could have isolated severe storms within them, with the threats mentioned earlier. The overall risk of severe storms in our immediate viewing area should be winding down by midnight, give or take an hour or so.
The Tennessee Valley Weather Team has the studio staffed, and we are ready to provide live updates later today and tonight should any warnings be issued. You can always get the latest information on our FREE Tennessee Valley Weather App. Just scan the QR code in the image above left, or search the Apple App Store or Google Play for "Tennessee Valley Weather". You can also find our 24/7 live streaming ALL LOCAL digital weather channel on Roku, FireTV, or YouTube by searching for "Tennessee Valley Weather". Lastly, should the situation warrant live extended coverage, you can find that simulcasted on our radio partners listed in the image above right.