Unsettled Start to 2023 Looks Likely.
It seems that Winter is away on holiday for the next few days - today has been a little breezy, and definitely warmer than average thanks to that moisture surging into the Tennessee Valley (which will be a more important player in the forecast going, forward). Most of us have just tipped the scales over 60 degrees, and some of us, especially in NW AL, are flirting with the upper bound of mid-60s for today as clouds slowly begin to move out.
For a lot of us, that stubborn cloud deck has helped temperatures stay on the cooler side, especially as you go further north. We had a few light showers move through the area early this afternoon, so this is just a symptom of lingering moisture sticking around. We clear out nicely with time, though!
By tomorrow, the clouds begin to clear and, to kick off our 2023, we have an oddly spring-like day to look forward to. By the latter half of the day, we've mostly cleared out and are SOLIDLY in the mid-upper 60s, with some of us maybe even flirting with 70 for tomorrow if you're especially lucky. This is definitely a far cry from just a week ago, when we were shivering in the teens and 20s for daytime highs. Talk about a shift! That being said, this is a sign of things to come which may not be so enjoyable.
By Monday, we're very similar to tomorrow, but the moisture is making its self apparent by the cloud deck we may be working with through the beginning of our workweek. Even though we may not see 100% sunshine, the warm air surging in from the south will be enough to inch us close to 70 for daytime highs for our Monday. Most of us will stay dry, but some evening showers are possible with situations like this.
By Monday night and into Tuesday morning, the next big shot at rain - and indeed, strong to severe storms - makes its way into the Tennessee Valley. Timing is still in flux to some degree, but it's looking more and more like a squarely Tuesday morning - Tuesday PM threat at the time being.
For Tuesday, all of our NW AL counties and the Southeastern portions of our S TN counties have been placed under a LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK for severe weather Tuesday. Even if you're just outside the drawn line in S TN, you should still consider yourself at risk for the chance of severe weather just out of due diligence, as forecasts very often expand with time as data becomes more clear. It seems that our forecast models suggest that storms may take on a more semi-discrete form - that is to say, they may have some room to breath, so to speak, as they develop. If this solution is accurate as opposed to, for example, a line of storms, the chance of rotation developing unimpeded is higher, and may increase the environmental favorability for tornadoes. As it is, we're watching the models evolve over the next couple days before we get overly specific, but a safe bet is to consider that all forms of severe weather are possible with systems like this. Stay tuned on the channel over coming couple of days as we continue to update our forecasts each day, and we'll keep you up to date with the latest.
When you look at the temperature trend, it really is no surprise we're facing a severe weather risk - temperatures in the 70s at this time of year usually indicate strong warm air advection as we call it, and that is almost always precedent for unsettled weather. With the passing front Tuesday, we fall off day after day back down through the 50s and into the 40s to where we should be for this time of year.
As for the big picture, it looks like we also stay mostly dry on the tail end of this beginning of the week system, and we don't get too offensively cold (which, after the last couple weeks, means something totally different for me personally!). If we can just get past this slugger of a system Tuesday, I would say our 2023 is off to an okay start!