It seems like its been a week of extremes - not long ago, we were in the lower 80s, but now we find ourselves bundling up in the upper 30s, and that is the UPPER bound of what we are dealing with today. This is thanks in large part to the overcast conditions that have really contributed to that gloomy feeling of today.
Indeed, even as of midday today, very few of us have broken 40, and it's looking increasingly likely that we won't, especially in Southern Middle Tennessee. This paves the way for bitter cold tonight - widespread mid to lower 20s looks increasingly likely, but with less cloud cover heading into tomorrow.
We can thank a high pressure system scraping the Valley for that - it helps clear us out, and we do get SOME good news in the way of clearer conditions through tomorrow. We're probably squarely into the 40s by tomorrow, but I am doubtful we'll get any higher than that, at least tomorrow. As we head into the beginning of the work week, things begin to change - we get some warm moist air moving in from the south, with highs closing in on 50 by Monday afternoon. Don't expect a big warmup though - this warm air is quickly interrupted by our next rain system.
Indeed, through Monday night and into Tuesday morning, that system moves through in a big way, with some dreary and persistent rain lasting into late Tuesday morning. Anything helps with a building drought! That said, it's in and out fairly quickly, and behind it, we're back to square one, so to speak.
Indeed, that northerly wind behind the system keeps us suppressed and it's unlikely we'll break 50 essentially all week. Frost looks to return towards the end of the week as well as we begin a slow cooling trend, in fact. Conditions despite this cooldown look okay, but some questions remain in the forecast...
The big question mark right now is Thursday - a gulf low may bring some light rain, but some models keep it too far south to impact us. Regardless of this system, one thing is a guarantee: the week ahead is a taste of a Tennessee Valley winter, with no meaningful warmup this week to look forward to. Bundle up!