Taking a look at the possibly stormy week ahead.
It's a beautiful day out there, especially with those light, wispy clouds out today. Especially for fall, it's a fairly mild if not warm day, with most of us reaching our highs around now (~2pm), in the vicinity of the mid-70s. It's a little breezy, with winds out of the south at 5-10 at times, and this warm, moist air coming in from the gulf is setting the stage for unsettled weather in a few days...
Tomorrow you can consider a "copy and paste" from today - sunny and mid-70s. We have a high pressure system keeping unsettled weather at bay the best it can, but that comes at the cost of the fact, due to its proximity, it actually wedges us between two southerly flow regimes - that is to say, it actually is helping warm air from the south surge into the Valley.
Indeed, by the beginning of the workweek, the system to our west is beginning to materialize in earnest, and the stage is being set as it pushes east. That aforementioned high pressure system continues to funnel moisture up through the MS River delta region, helping the system sustain itself as it moves eastwards Monday and into Tuesday. Monday locally looks to stay dry and breezy for us, with some of us flirting with 80s for highs.
By Tuesday, the system has stayed robust enough to warrant a LEVEL 2 of 5 outline to our west from the Storm Prediction Center for most of Mississippi. Our core viewing area is OUTSIDE of the severe area as of now, but the chance of some strong storms remains as it pushes into the Tennessee Valley with it's associated cold front. Expect some moderate to heavy downpours, and some gustier winds at times as it moves through Tuesday evening. We're monitoring trends to make sure it doesn't act up as it moves across the Tennessee valley, so be sure to stay tuned over the next few days as the situation evolves.
Behind the system, it's not looking too bad - the cold front definitely cools us down a bit, but not much, and not for too terribly long. We have a few fall-like days, comfortably in the 60s, with 70s returning by the end of the week. Those 70s may bring with them some showers here and there, but we can handle that - especially if we can get past that unsettled midweek!