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Still warming up, but a severe weather threat looms Monday.


We're still warming up pretty nicely, sitting well above the climatological average for this time of year (though this is historically when we begin the uptrend into more spring-like 60s and 70s). It's been a partly cloudy day by and large, with most of us staying in the upper 70s as highs, but a sharp southerly breeze sustained at 10-15 with gusts to 20 have kept the feels like temps in the upper 60s and lower 60s. This sharp breeze is one of the reasons we've stayed so warm lately, with warm gulf air surging in from the south. Tomorrow will be essentially a copy of today, with temperatures actually trending *warmer* still. This warmth will yield a small chance of showers through Sunday - it will also set the stage for the unsettled weather into the beginning of the work week.

A level 2 out of 5 risk extends from portions of Mississippi all the way through the majority of our coverage area, and up into the Virginias. Some of our fringe counties are also in a level 1 out of 5 risk, on the NW side of the coverage area. The dynamic support for severe weather Monday has trended down quite a bit since first being locked onto by our models, but as with any passage of storms, it would likely be wise to watch for damaging winds, very isolated small hail, and a chance of a tornado or two within the line somewhere on Monday. The timing remains a bit wobbly, but it seems late morning to early afternoon is a good bet.

Attached here is a look at one of the many diagnostic tools we use behind the scenes to help us predict the chance of tornadoes on any given day - the significant tornado parameter. The threat, clearly, isn't all that high, but you can see how the threat appears to have max out along a line, extending SW to NE. At any point in this line, a tornado or two is entirely possible, and this perhaps help visualize why we can't narrow down the exact - it really almost feels random, unless there are more precise dynamics to focus on somewhere within the line. This is why we encourage you to stay weather aware, just in case!

In the extended term, it will begin to cool down thanks to Mondays storms, ironically - the storms are associated with a frontal passage that drops us to more reasonable temperatures for this time of year - interestingly, we don't get below freezing for a good while yet, avoiding frost for a while, and having a fairly decent week for spring cleaning. Rain returns as a possibility mid to late week, but temperatures mediate in the 50s and 60s as we wrap the week up.



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