Happy Tuesday! The heat and humidity are cranked up today, but another "cold" front is on the way to save us. By save, I mean knock us back into the 80s. Tuesday high temps will be in the low to mid 90s around the Tennessee Valley. Heat indices will be in the 100-105° range.
First, I will show you the Baron Futurecast model. This model is drier than others, but still paints a picture of what could play out. This model is not showing much in terms of rain for Tuesday evening. It does show a line of storms developing around 3 a.m. and then weakening as it moves southeast through the Tennessee Valley. Futurecast also shows a weak line of storms developing late morning and early afternoon, mainly in North Alabama.
Here is another model that we use to create our forecasts, the HRRR. This model is showing a more aggressive output in terms of rainfall coverage. Between these two models, I think we find a happy medium play out overnight and into Wednesday. The HRRR shows storms popping up Tuesday evening, with another round developing around midnight, 8 a.m. and then around 5 p.m. in North Alabama.
Once the cold front pushes through and winds shift out of the northwest, we will get just about as much relief from the heat as you can in the middle of July. Temperatures stay in the upper 80s and heat indices remain below 100° through the weekend.
There large cluster of rain/storms currently raining on gulf coast beach vacation plans. As far as any development for this tropical disturbance, there is only a 30% chance it strengthens over the next five days. Whether the system is organized or not, it's not the best week for the beach. Showers and storms will continue for the next several days.
Back here in the Tennessee Valley, once we get past Thursday, we will dry out for the first part of your weekend. No rain chance Friday, a stray storm is possible Saturday, and daily rain chances return by Sunday. Plus, notice temperatures stay below 90° throughout the forecast. It's not groundbreaking, but we will gladly take it for mid-July.