Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Some may be strong.
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more numerous as we get into the heat of the day this afternoon. We're watching one cluster over north Mississippi into central Alabama move northward on Live VIPIR's Radar Network, with a second line moving southeastward over Tennessee. There is already a Severe Thunderstorm Watch just north of our viewing area, over northern middle Tennessee into middle and eastern Kentucky.
For the rest of today and tonight, the Storm Prediction Center maintains all of our viewing area under at least a Level 1 of 5 risk of severe storms, with a Level 2 of 5 risk now in place from near Waynesboro through Hohenwald into the Columbia area and then northward through northern middle Tennessee. The overall risk of severe weather is not high by any means, but a few storms may produce straight-line wind gusts of 40-60 mph, in addition to small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. We may have to watch for an increased risk of flooding and flash flooding as we head through the evening and overnight as rounds of heavy rainfall move over the same areas.
The latest run of the high resolution Futurecast model we get from Baron shows showers and thunderstorms continuing to increase in coverage this afternoon before a more solid and organized line moves southeastward into southern middle Tennessee by early evening. That continues to move into the area during the overnight with things transitioning over to heavy rain and embedded thunder as we head into the overnight. Rounds of heavy rain appear possible over northern Alabama, and this may increase the flooding potential in these areas. The end of the rain and storms is trending a little faster though, with all of this looking to be gone by daybreak on Tuesday.
We will be watching the storms carefully through the rest of the day and will provide live updates on the channel and social media if conditions warrant.