We have beautiful mostly clear skies on the Arctic Air Skycam Network this morning. Very few clouds out there to start our day. With that being the case, naturally, radar is quiet across the immediate area. However, there are showers and thunderstorms shifting out of northeast Arkansas into northwestern Tennessee. Temperatures areawide this morning are generally in the mid to upper 70s as of the 6:00 AM Hour.
Temperatures will warm through the 80s this morning into the lower 90s by midday and afternoon. Heat index values will once again climb into the upper 90s to maybe lower 100s by the afternoon, but those values will be below heat advisory criteria.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop as we head into the afternoon, but unlike the last several days, they start to become more widespread today. It's still not a case where EVERYONE gets them, but you're a good bit more likely to see a shower or storm today than the last several days if you've been dry so far this week. If you get under one of these, rainfall may be heavy, and there may be a storm or two with gusty winds. Also unlike the past few days, these scattered showers and storms may continue to redevelop, at least in isolated fashion, as we head into the overnight and early Friday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms become more widespread as early as the late morning on Friday and continue into the afternoon and evening. We've upped the rain chance for Friday to 90% because things are looking a good bit more widespread. As will be the case all the way through the weekend, a few storms may be capable of gusty winds to accompany the heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning, but the overall severe weather risk is low. If storms congeal into a cluster or other organized feature Friday afternoon, that may help to work over the atmosphere so that they weaken and shift out of the area during the evening, instead of continuing deeper into the overnight.
This pattern will continue right on through the weekend, if not into Monday, as the frontal boundary stalls out over our area and waves of showers and thunderstorms ride through at times. The good news is, afternoon highs get down into the mid 80s with all the clouds and rain around the area.
Models aren't in the most agreement with the exact rain amounts over the area, but they do give confidence that a widespread 1.5 to 3 inches of rain from now through the weekend is most likely, with some isolated heavier totals being likely. While it's not the most likely scenario to unfold, the Baron model shown here shows a reasonably possible scenario should we get a few rounds of training thunderstorms over the next few days. IF this were to occur, we definitely couldn't rule out some 4+ inch rain totals, and that would increase the potential for flooding or flash flooding. While not the most likely outcome, it's definitely not impossible, and we will be watching things closely.