We are aware that the severe weather risk for Monday from the Storm Prediction Center is currently placed west and southwest of our coverage area, but do not be surprised at all if that is expanded or shifted into our area in coming outlook updates.
As we have looked at incoming model data today, it has become apparent that the strong low-level shear necessary for an isolated tornado threat will extend as far east and northeast as middle Tennessee and west Alabama late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. The main question is just how much in the way of thunderstorm activity there will be that far east to interact with that wind shear. The main band of storms associated with Cristobal will likely set up just west of our coverage area Monday and Monday night, over central Mississippi to west Tennessee. This will likely be where the higher tornado risk will be. However, there is definitely a signal that there may be scattered cellular development that extends east of that band that would stretch as far east as much of our coverage area. If this is indeed the case, those storms would have available to them the wind shear environment necessary for a few isolated tornadoes. This is a lower-end threat, but it is still a threat that is worth mentioning, and it is very possible that there may be a few tornado warnings in our coverage counties between Monday afternoon and about mid morning on Tuesday. There will be a long-duration window where, at times, there may be a few rotating storms. Tornado threats related to the remnants of tropical systems often last over longer periods of time because of the slower forward motion of those systems compared to a line of thunderstorms you may see in the spring and fall months.
Again, we stress that this is a lower-end threat and there are still some uncertainties. This is not a guarantee. But we have seen enough of a signal in the data that we need to start mentioning this potential, and we will be fully staffed and ready to provide live coverage Monday, Monday night, and Tuesday morning should weather conditions warrant.