7/30/2020 - #tnvalleywx
The latest update for today from the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a large part of southwest Tennessee and northeast Mississippi to a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe storms, and much of the remainder of the viewing area remains in a Level 1 of 5 risk.
These will be scattered "not everybody gets one" storms that we can't give a neat timeline graphic for, but the main window of opportunity for today runs roughly from 2pm-10pm. Having said that, forecast model guidance so far this morning and midday has really been pretty consistently backing off on the risk for today, despite the SPC feeling it necessary to do the upgrade.
When comparing those forecast models to actual observed conditions right now, they are handling the current weather pretty accurately too; so, it's entirely possible for this threat to not quite materialize as widespread as this upgrade would suggest. STILL, we DON'T want you to let your guard down. Remain alert this afternoon and evening, and we will provide information if a warning happens to be issued.