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Rain incoming early this AM. A few strong PM storms possible. Hot temps this week.

I'm typing this just before the 2:00 AM hour, and for right now, all is quiet across our immediate area. Temperatures are still in the lower 80s for most of us, with cloud cover helping to insulate us earlier this morning. Rain and storms are back off over western Tennessee into northern Mississippi, and these are slowly but surely heading in our direction early this morning.

High-resolution models have the rain and storms moving into the area over the next several hours, but the storms weaken with time as they move in, and we already see signs of that on radar now. It is NOT a guarantee that the morning activity holds together well enough that everybody sees rain. Having said that, at least scattered areas of showers and storms for portions of the area seem like a decent bet through about the mid morning hours before things mostly settle down and we go into a temporary lull. We may even get a few breaks of sunshine during the late morning and midday which look to warm us into the mid 80s or so.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Alabama and Mississippi portions of the viewing area in a marginal Level 1 of 5 risk of severe storms for scattered redevelopment expected during the afternoon and evening hours. The overall risk of severe weather is low, and a tornado risk is not expected (it's NEVER zero during a severe thunderstorm, but it's as close to zero as possible), but a few storms may produce wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph in isolated areas, and one or two storms may contain small hail. Isolated flooding may also become a risk by late in the day and into the evening if any location gets multiple storms.

As is often the case this time of year, there's no true rhyme or reason in exactly where afternoon thunderstorm activity will redevelop, but we expect scattered afternoon thunderstorms to start developing over parts of the area possibly as early as midday, but more likely in the 2-3PM timeframe. The latest high-resolution model data keeps scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the area right into the late evening and overnight; however, it is likely that any evening storms will lose intensity as we head after 8-10PM with the loss of daytime heating and instability. Still, scattered storms with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind gusts of 20-30 mph may carry right on into Tuesday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms become more isolated heading into the midday and afternoon on Tuesday as the upper energy pulls away and the frontal boundary washes out and moves through. And then rain chances for the rest of the week are still there but become much more isolated as ridging aloft gradually starts to build back. That means hotter weather, and after today, heat index values will again return to the 100+ degree range, if not the 105+ degree range for the remainder of the week. Current indications are that the weekend into at least early next week could end up becoming very hot again as the core of the upper heat ridge once again centers itself over the Southeast. Summer 2022 in the Tennessee Valley rolls on!

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