Rain chances increasing locally. Elsa targeting Florida, possibly as a hurricane.
Deeper moisture is beginning to move back into the area from south to north, and that is pretty easy to see on our SkyTrack network this afternoon. The more widespread cloud cover is seen on our north Alabama cameras, although there is still a decent cumulus field in southern Tennessee. Showers and a few storms have developed over north Alabama this afternoon, and these will be much more widespread the next couple of days.
Rain chances will steadily increase the next few days as a weakening cold front moves southeastward from the Midwest and interacts with the tropical moisture moving northward into our area. Rain and thunderstorms will be most widespread on Wednesday, but after today, showers and thunderstorms will be probable every day the next week, especially from midday into the early evening each day.
Elsa is moving northward through the far eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and is showing signs of strengthening. Winds are up to 70 mph as of the 1:00 pm Central Time advisory, and Elsa is now forecast to make landfall on the coast of the Big Bend area of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. From there, Elsa will move northward through southeast Georgia and the Carolinas before zooming northeastward in the jet stream flow off the coast of the Northeast USA. Elsa will not have any direct impact on our weather locally, and the only impacts expected for the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida panhandle beaches of the Gulf Coast will be an increased risk of rip currents and wave action.