Temperatures are balmy once again this morning across the Tennessee Valley as we continue to sit in this deep, moist, tropical air mass. Much of the area is in the lower 70s at this early hour. Showers and thunderstorms continue to train across north Mississippi into northwest Alabama, with light to moderate showers extending northward into southern Tennessee. These showers and storms will continue off and on for much of the day with afternoon temperatures again topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Because of the rainfall that has already fallen and expected continued rain and thunderstorms, a Flash Flood Watch continues across northern Mississippi, including Tishomingo County in our viewing area. Between now and Friday evening, another widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain are likely across much of the viewing area, with locally heavier totals possible. The risk of flooding and flash flooding may begin to increase further, and at some point soon, the National Weather Service offices in our area may have to consider the idea of a Flash Flood Watch or Flood Watch across north Alabama and/or southern Tennessee.
Here is an overview of the timing of the rain and storms with the latest run of our high-resolution Futurecast model from Baron. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue today, tonight, Thursday, and even into Friday. Locally heavy rainfall is likely at times, and we can't rule out a couple of storms producing gusty winds. However, it is looking like the risk of severe storms is lower than what we saw on Tuesday, and as of now, we are not outlooked in any type of severe storm risk from the Storm Prediction Center.
Rain chances remain high from now through Friday, but as we head toward the weekend and early next week, storms become much more hit or miss in nature, typical of what we see in the late spring and early summer months across the Tennessee Valley. With a little more in the way of sunshine, afternoon highs will climb, reaching the upper 80s by the weekend. I wouldn't be shocked if a few areas make a run at 90 degrees.
If you're headed to the beach for vacation over the next few days, the weather doesn't look too bad at all across the Gulf Coast. The higher rain chances stay farther north across the northern half to 2/3 of Mississippi and Alabama and up through our local area. We may see a stray storm or two along the coastal areas by the weekend, however. Afternoon highs down there will be in the low to mid 80s for the next few days, before creeping into the upper 80s or near 90 by the weekend.
The tropics are mostly quiet for now, but we continue to watch the disturbance in the southwest Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center continues to give this disturbance a low chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days. Beyond that, long-range model data continues to suggest that some type of tropical system may try to develop in the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf at some point next week. As of now, it is way too far out to have concern over that, and there are no imminent tropical threats to any portion of the United States.