If you're waking up to bright sunshine out your window this morning, don't let that fool you. Widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms are moving into the area from the north and west already this morning, and that will continue to overspread the area over the next few hours.
It's not going to be an all-day rain, but heavy showers and storms will be likely off and on through the rest of today at times. A few storms could produce some gusty winds, but the overall severe weather risk is very low. We may have some isolated flooding issues to contend with. Afternoon highs to reach the mid to upper 80s over middle Tennessee and the upper 80s to lower 90s over north Alabama, depending on how long it takes for the rain to overspread the area this morning.
There will continue to be a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms at times as we head through the evening and overnight lows. Overnight lows will drop down into the lower 70s, with a few folks possibly getting into the upper 60s. The rain won't be non-stop overnight, but it will be possible through the overnight hours, not just the early evening like most times during the summer months.
This on and off rainy pattern with periods of widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms at times will continue right on through the weekend. As we head into next week, the front falls apart with time, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet for Monday and even into Tuesday before becoming more isolated by midweek. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s through the weekend before climbing back toward the lower 90s by next week as rain chances become more isolated with time.
With multiple rounds of heavy rain affecting the same areas the next few days, we are becoming a little bit concerned about the potential for flooding and flash flooding. Everyone looks to see a solid 2 to 3 inches of rain across our viewing area between now and Monday evening, based on the latest data that seems to be handling the evolution of things the best. However, that does not account for training of thunderstorms, and if that happens (which is very possible), localized rain totals could be higher in those areas (possibly 3-4+ inches).