Rain and storms through Tuesday. Much cooler air on the way.
A soggy weekend across the Tennessee Valley has led us right into a soggy Monday. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms continue across a large part of the area on this Monday afternoon. Some of this rain is heavy at times, and there is still a continued concern for flooding and flash flooding across much of the area. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for middle Tennessee and north Alabama until 7:00 PM this evening, and it is possible this may be extended into Tuesday as the risk of heavy rain will continue.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening before fading during the later overnight. We still can't rule out a stray shower during the overnight or Tuesday morning, but most folks will see a lull in the action. More rain and thunderstorms approach the area by the late morning and afternoon on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front that will bring big weather changes to the area. That activity will overspread the area through the afternoon and into Tuesday night with locally heavy rainfall a continued risk, which may continue the flooding threat.
The cold front moves through during the overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Rain ends during the morning hours on Wednesday, with skies beginning to clear during the afternoon and evening as cooler and drier air rushes in behind the front. This big front arrives just in time for the first official day of fall, and it definitely brings a fall-like air mass with it. We may struggle to reach 70 degrees for a daytime high both Wednesday and Thursday, and that is with sun on Thursday! Morning lows will be all the way down to the upper 40s for Thursday and Friday mornings, and our outlying cooler areas may be as low as the mid 40s in spots!
We still have our eye on the Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Peter and Tropical Storm Rose are currently on the board. We may also have Tropical Storm Sam out there as well. The good news is that the current large scale weather pattern favors the idea that these storms recurve out in the Atlantic and pose no threat to the United States. We will be watching these cold fronts as they get down into the Gulf though. That can sometimes open the door for "homegrown" systems to develop. As of now, we see no imminent threats like that, but we are watching carefully.