We've had a few scattered showers and heavier downpours so far, but at least through early this afternoon, the rain hasn't been too widespread. More widespread heavier rain and thunderstorms are ongoing from southwest Tennessee down through much of north Mississippi. This is all ahead of the big cold front that will be bringing significant weather changes to our area over the next 24 hours.
These heavier showers and storms will be shifting into the area during the late afternoon and through the evening. We may have to watch for localized flooding as the heavy rain moves into our area, which is already saturated from the bouts of heavy rain since late last week. In addition, with a little more dynamic forcing to work with as the cold front and associated upper-level trough approaches, we may have a strong storm or two with gusty winds of 30-50 mph. With the saturated soil conditions, this may make it significantly easier for trees to be knocked down than it otherwise would be. A second round of heavy rain and rumbles of thunder will work into the area after midnight, and toward daybreak, as the actual cold front itself moves into the area. There may be gusty winds with this activity as well, but this will be a quicker-hitting round of activity as the cold front itself moves in. Skies will start to clear by midday and the afternoon, but despite breaks of sunshine, afternoon temperatures look to only get in the upper 60s to maybe lower 70s behind the cold front. Those northerly winds bringing in the cooler and drier air may gust as high as 20-25 mph through the day as high pressure builds in behind that cold front.
Skies will be mostly clear by Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and as winds begin to calm down a little, temperatures will drop substantially. Morning lows on both Thursday and Friday mornings look to be down into the upper 40s areawide, and our naturally cooler spots across the area may be as low as the mid 40s, especially by Friday morning. We start to moderate back toward the mid to upper 70s through the weekend as high pressure shifts to the east and we start to get southerly flow ahead of the next cold front that approaches by the weekend and the start of next week. There may be a shower or two ahead of that front by Saturday night into early Sunday, but any rain should be very isolated and not that heavy.