The front that moved through the area to bring the drier air into the Tennessee Valley has now stalled along the Gulf Coast. We are left with a comfortable air mass in place. Check out these temperatures this morning! As cool as 57 degrees in Lawrenceburg and Centreville in Tennessee as of the 4:00am hour. Highs will top out in the mid 80s today under mostly sunny skies, and with the lower humidity around, those mid 80s won't feel all that bad. High pressure anchored over the Plains and into the Rockies will keep a northerly flow here for the next day or two, and that will keep this air mass in place. Highs on your Thursday will also be in the mid 80s but it's Friday and the weekend before the moisture comes back northward as low-level winds shift around to the south and we get flow from the Gulf of Mexico again.
The dry air in place also means that rain chances will continue to stay out of the picture. We look to stay dry though at least Friday, before deepening moisture and a front to the north allows for a few showers or maybe a thunderstorm on Saturday. The bigger rain chances hold off until Sunday when the tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico possibly has a direct impact on our local weather.
As of now, the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is still fairly unorganized, but the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of the system developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm to 90%, and increased the odds of that happening within the next 48 hours to 60%.
While there is still some inconsistency among some of the hurricane track models, and there will be until an organized low pressure develops and we get recon data to observe it, the main global models that handle the outside conditions that would steer the system are starting to come into better and consistent agreement on the idea that the system moves northward across the western Gulf through Friday, strengthening into a tropical storm, before making landfall somewhere on the upper Texas or Louisiana coastline. From there, the models track the system northeast toward Arkansas and Louisiana and eventually the Tennessee Valley by Sunday. There is growing consistency in the data on this track idea, and if it is correct, that would increase the chances of heavy rain and possibly flooding... and possible severe storms... across our immediate local area on Sunday. There's still plenty of time to monitor this, and this will hinge completely on the exact track of the system. However, direct local impacts across our area are looking more and more possible. We will be monitoring carefully and will be providing updated information as this all unfolds.