One more warm day ahead, big cool down, and then weekend rain and storms ahead.
Temperatures have been a bit below seasonable averages for our Monday, but they haven't been too bad. Many of us have gotten into the mid to upper 60s, with a few of us even topping 70 degrees this afternoon. Coupled with the abundant sunshine and only a few high clouds at times, it's been an overall great weather day. We expect more of the same for Tuesday, but even warmer temperatures, as high pressure hangs on for one more day. Afternoon highs look to top out in the lower to middle 70s.
Weather changes aren't too far ahead in the future though. A big cold front is located to our north over the Upper Midwest, and this cold front is heading southward toward our area. Check out the big temperature contrast, going from the low to mid 70s in the Southern Plains to below freezing in the Northern Rockies and in the 30s as far east as Minnesota. We're not going to get close to that chilly, but that cooler air is definitely on the way.
As the front moves into the area overnight tomorrow night and into the predawn hours of Wednesday, a quick-hitting band of showers looks to work into the area. This looks to hold off until after midnight Tuesday night and be gone by daybreak on Wednesday. Overall, rainfall amounts look fairly light. The interesting thing to note is that, off to our north as the colder air rushes in, a sleet pellet or a snowflake may briefly mix in for areas across northern Tennessee. It looks like that type of activity stays just off to the north of our viewing area! That moves out before daybreak, and then clouds decrease as we head through the day on Wednesday, with sun returning by midday and the afternoon, if not before that.
The big storm with the frontal boundary will be the temperatures. Despite decreasing clouds and a return to sunshine on Wednesday, afternoon highs don't get out of the mid 50s! That's a good 20 or so degrees below our seasonal average for late April! As skies clear out and wind calms down a bit overnight Wednesday night, temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s. This may allow a late season frost to develop across the area by early Thursday morning. It's really late in the season, but not unheard of, for this to occur. However, you are going to have to protect any tender vegetation or risk losing it. Temperatures start to moderate again as we head through the remainder of the week ahead of the next big weather system.
High pressure shifts east of the area as we head through Friday, with clouds steadily returning as moisture moves back into the area on southerly winds. There might even be a few showers here and there on Friday. The bulk of the rain holds off until Saturday as the main storm system ejects toward our area from the Southern Plains. Showers and storms look likely, and there may be periods of heavy rain. For now, it looks like the track of the low pressure is far enough south that any risk of severe weather misses us to the south. That clears out in time for a return to sunshine on Sunday into early next week with daytime highs remaining near 70 degrees.