Showers and thunderstorms are already developing over middle Tennessee this morning, and they will fill in across the area as we head deeper into the day. This will be yet another day of widespread showers and storms after such a wet week we have had across the Tennessee Valley this week. The good news is, the end of this consistently wet weather pattern is FINALLY within short-range sight!
Our latest high-resolution Futurecast model run from our friends at Baron shows widespread development areawide this afternoon. Any thunderstorm has the potential for lightning, heavy rain, or 30-40 mph winds (your typical late spring and summer type storms), but we see no signs of a real severe weather threat. These shift south of the area as we head into the evening, but a few stray storms may linger across the area overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, especially in the heat of the afternoon, on both Saturday and Sunday... but they will be MUCH more isolated.
This is because the trough of low pressure that's been persistently stuck over our area this week will be shifting off to the east as high pressure builds eastward from the Plains. While this won't mean a 100% dry weekend, it will mean rain chances will be significantly lower. It also means that we see an increase in temperatures as well.
After topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, temperatures bump up into the mid and upper 80s for the weekend, and a few places will probably flirt with if not reach 90 or 91 degrees. With the high dewpoints lingering a few more days, that means heat index values are going to be running high as well, in the 95 to 99 degree range over the weekend.
Weatherwise, it's going to be a great weekend to sneak away for a little mini vacation. A few hit or miss storms are possible Saturday and Sunday along the Gulf Coast, typical of what you expect this time of year, not a washout by any means. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s. Similar weather can be found in Gatlinburg if you're wanting to head to the mountains. A few stray isolated storms each day, otherwise partly sunny and highs in the low to mid 80s. Locally at home, if you want to head out to the area lakes and rivers, it will be a great weekend for that as well. A few stray storms are possible, especially Saturday, with even lower rain chances Sunday. Otherwise, partly sunny to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Tropics remain quiet as of this Friday morning. The disturbance we had been watching this week in the southwestern Caribbean has moved inland over Central America and is no longer expected to have development chances. We are still getting some model signals for the possibility of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf during the second half of next week. It is way too far out to be too concerned about that at the moment. It's just something we will keep eyes on here in the weather center as we head into next week.