I am so ready to put these sub-freezing temps behind us. If you're like me, thankfully we don't have to wait much longer. We have a nice warm-up ahead, and quiet weather for a while. Here is what you can expect for the rest of today: a cool afternoon and another cold night.
The next several days we will be riding a warming trend, but we will stay dry through at least Monday night. I'm very eager to see the new drought monitor that will be released tomorrow. This week's update will account for last week's rain, but it's still been predominantly dry.
Our next chance for rain here in the Tennessee Valley comes Tuesday into Wednesday, with Tuesday looking like the bullseye. I'll walk you through two model outputs that are more or less in agreement with one another. At least, in as much agreement as they can be 6 days out. Let's start with the GFS model. Rain begins early Tuesday morning. A few thunderstorms may be embedded into all of this, but for now, a severe threat looks minimal at best. The GFS model shows the rain moving out by early Tuesday evening, with no additional rain chances.
The ECMWF model is mostly on the same page as the GFS. This model is a tad slower and has rain lingering a bit longer. The ECMWF shows rain and a few storms moving in mid-morning next Tuesday. This models shows the bulk of the rainfall happening in the afternoon, with a few lingering showers into Wednesday morning as well.
Models are spitting out anywhere from 0.1" to about an inch of rain with this system. Again, at this time we are not thinking this will be a severe weather threat, but we will let you know if that changes. Until then, we remain bone dry, but the weekend will be fantastic.