After a chilly Monday, temperatures moderate as we head through this Thanksgiving week. Morning temperatures on Tuesday will be chilly though, with most folks in the low to mid 30s, very close to the freezing mark. We warm into the 60s by afternoon though, a good 8 to 10degrees warmer than today. The 60s look to stay in place for the remainder of the week, despite a couple of weather systems that move through the area.
The first weather system we're watching will begin to approach the area after midnight Tuesday night. Strong southerly winds will start to increase moisture across the area ahead of the system, and scattered showers will start to move into the area during the predawn hours of Wednesday. By mid and late morning, weakening thunderstorms will move out of west Tennessee and north Mississippi into the area. As the atmosphere slightly energizes with the heat of the day and increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorms may redevelop by afternoon and early evening and push through the area ahead of the actual cold front itself.
This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to place the area in a Level 1 of 5 risk of severe storms for the area on Wednesday. The main concern is that one or two storms may grow strong enough to produce gusty straight-line winds. Despite the wind shear in place, it does not look like the instability will be there for this to be a more significant risk or for there to be a tornado risk. However, you can never 100% rule out a tornado with any severe thunderstorm, and we will watch things carefully, just in case. We just don't have any reason to believe this will be more than one or two storms with gusty winds.
That system moves out of our area later Wednesday evening, and we are left with clearing skies and seasonable temperatures for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the lower 60s. In fact, except for a little snow in the northern Rockies and showers and thunderstorms in the Northeast as our departing system moves through, there shouldn't be too much in the way of weather-related travel issues on Thanksgiving Day. After this, we will be watching for developments associated with our next rain maker scheduled for the upcoming weekend.