Big weather changes are on the way this week, but for right now, it's a fairly nice weather day on this Monday afternoon. We have just a mix of sun and clouds across the area, with radar looking completely quiet. That stays the same through tomorrow as well. Temperatures as of early this afternoon are warming into the 50s most everywhere, and some areas of north Alabama and Mississippi aren't far from 60 degrees.
As we head into the evening, temperatures drop back into the 40s after sunset with skies more or less partially clear. We're not heading for overly cold weather though, with morning lows only dropping to the upper 30s. Tuesday offers an even warmer day in store, with partly cloudy skies and afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s!
Things begin to change as we head into the middle of the week though. An arctic front stays just to our northwest, and with southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico, we get an environment favorable for periods of heavy rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder as we head through Wednesday and Thursday. Our latest Futurecast model projections show a widespread 1.5-2 inches of rain across the area, but other models show our rain totals in the 3-4 inch range by Friday morning, and that is very possible. Localized flooding could become an issue across the area, especially by Thursday. Fortunately, we still see no signs of a threat of severe storms in our area. As the shallow arctic air moves in Thursday night behind the front, there may be a brief window where the exiting rain changes to light freezing rain across the area. HOWEVER, that is a very uncertain scenario, and it looks more likely that the higher chances for icing, even light icing, remain to our northwest. Having said that, models often don't handle these shallow arctic air masses well. We will have to watch to see if the colder air tries sneaking a few counties farther south than what currently looks likely. Regardless, it looks like we're back into the colder air by Friday with daytime highs back into the mid to upper 30s.