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It's Hurricane Season - How are the Tropics Looking?


We've made it through August and are fast approaching September, and thus far the Atlantic and Gulf basins haven't had much in the way of meaningful tropical activity (thankfully) to speak of. As we approach the statistical peak of Hurricane season, I thought it'd be prudent to take a quick look at the current state of the Tropics.


Many of the Tennessee Valleys most impactful systems originate in the Gulf/West Atlantic region between Cuba and South America, and the NHC is keeping an eye on convection here - the first "code yellow" outlook on the map is in this region, closely monitoring development possibilities over the next week. If this system does develop, it is unlikely to impact the CONUS region, as steering winds pull it into the region near Yucatan and Central Mexico, then weakening it dramatically.


The next system the NHC is monitoring is "code red", which indicates a greater than 60% chance of developing over the next week. It is currently this broiling mass of convection trying to get its act together, but models persistently indicate this system has a notable shot at developing.

Spaghetti Plot models, which superimpose various tropical models onto a map and show the projected tracks of given tropical systems, show this system in particular moving into a favorable environment which is disconcertingly close to the CONUS region near the Bahamas. Some models steer it off into the Atlantic in a sharp north turn at this point, but it remains to be seen if this outcome is more likely. We can certainly hope, but it'd be diligent to watch this closely.


The final system of any meaningful interest is this wave of convection currently moving off of the African coast. It is also a "code yellow", with odds of around 20% over the next week. The odds may increase, but it does not look as robust as these other systems - in general, it is good practice however to keep an eye on these waves at this time of year. This region is the most common formation point of many Atlantic hurricanes. All this being said, there are certainly signs of life in the Tropics, and we're keeping a close eye on more than one system at this moment. We'll keep you up to date if any one in particular looks to be more of a risk!




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