We are warm but quiet across the Tennessee Valley early on this Tuesday morning. Radar is clear here locally, with showers and thunderstorms staying up over the Ohio Valley for now, near the frontal boundary that will influence our weather later this week. Temperatures across our area as of late in this 3:00 AM hour are generally in the mid to upper 70s. We may fall a couple more degrees before sunrise to reach our morning lows, but not much.
Skies start partly sunny this morning, but clouds look to bubble up and increase in coverage as we head through the day. Temperatures start warming into the low to mid 90s by midday and the afternoon, and that's when our widely scattered showers and thunderstorms start to develop across the area. Not everybody is going to get rain today. The showers and storms will be very hit or miss. But we do expect them to continue into the early evening before we lose daytime heating. We look to remain dry overnight after that with partly cloudy skies and morning temperatures for Wednesday getting down again into the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday will be very similar to today... thunderstorms in the afternoon being somewhat widely scattered. However, rain chances really go up after that for the rest of the week and the weekend as the frontal boundary to the north shifts southward into our area and then hangs up. We look to have waves of rain and storms Thursday through Sunday (during the daytime and nighttime hours), and some of the rainfall may be locally heavy at times. The good news is that as rain chances go up, temperatures go down a bit. Daytime highs by Friday and the weekend will be back into the 80s!
The tropical Atlantic is still quiet for now. We don't expect tropical formation for the next 5 to 7 days at least. There is a wave that has come off the coast of Africa, but there is a fairly widespread plume of Saharan dust out over the central and eastern Atlantic, and this is one of several factors that should keep this wave from organizing. We are seeing indications that the large scale background environment may start to become more favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic going into early August though. Stay tuned!