Heavy rain, thunderstorms moving in. Monitoring a flooding threat.
I hope you enjoyed a couple dry days, because dry conditions are coming to a screeching halt. A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire TN Valley Weather viewing area except for Lewis, Maury and Marshall County. This watch is in effect until midnight Thursday. We can expect several inches of rain in about a 24 hour span.
The cold front that is still west of the Mississippi River has a ton of moisture with it. Showers and thunderstorms are already plentiful, some storms even severe to our southwest. We won't be dealing with severe thunderstorms but like I mentioned, we are closely monitoring a flooding threat. Stronger storms will stay to our west and well to our south.
As far as timing goes, we could see a few lighter showers before midnight, but heavy rainfall doesn't arrive until after 12 a.m. Within this mass of heavy rain will be embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Expect multiple rounds of showers and storms throughout the entire day until after dinner time. I think most, if not all of us are dry by midnight. That being said, Wednesday will indeed be a washout of a day. We may see a few brief breaks in the rain here and there, but they will be few and far between.
Now, remember there is a flood watch in effect and flooding is a very real and serious threat. It will be quite dangerous to be driving during torrential downpours that we are expecting. Also, any low lying areas that are prone to flooding are sure to fill up and cause problems fairly quickly. I have included four model outputs of forecast rainfall totals through Thursday morning. The main takeaway, everyone in the Tennessee Valley is expected to get more than an inch and a half of rain, generally speaking. With several models outputting 4+ inches, it's got me concerned that a very heavy band of rain/will set up somewhere over the viewing area. Each model has a slightly different idea on where that may be. My takeaway from this: expect several inches of rain tomorrow and don't drive if you don't have to.
Alright, enough talk about the rain. We are going to be dry Thursday and beyond! Yes, there's a catch. Temps are going to get quite chilly, with highs in the lower 40s and lows below freezing! I'm still keeping an eye on a small rain chance early next week, but for now there is not enough model agreement to throw in any possibility. So, we are surely dry through the weekend, after we get through tomorrow.