Heavy rain and storms today. A better shot at a few severe storms Wednesday and Friday.
The rain and stormies continue across our area this afternoon, with widespread showers and thunderstorms over southern Tennessee and flirting with the Alabama state line, developing along a rain-cooled air boundary from overnight and morning activity. Otherwise, south of these storms, skies are partly sunny over north Alabama and Mississippi with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s. We are watching another disturbance back over Arkansas that may increase thunderstorm chances this evening as it approaches the area.
There will be several opportunities over the next few days for storms to be strong to possibly severe, beginning this afternoon and evening. Today, a couple of storms may produce 40-60 mph winds to go along with the heavy rain and frequent lightning. As that mesoscale low comes out of Arkansas this evening, wind fields may be just favorable enough that the threat of a small spin-up tornado isn't completely zero, but the threat will be very low.
A somewhat greater risk of an organized severe weather event will exist on Wednesday (from the late morning into the afternoon) as a complex of thunderstorms moves into the area. This thunderstorm complex has a better shot of a more widespread wind damage event, with gusts of 50-70 mph being possible. We also can't completely rule out a stray tornado or two, but the overall threat will be low. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding are also threats. The overall main timeframe is roughly around 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM for the most intense storms.
We look to get a brief break on Thursday as the frontal boundary temporarily shifts south, but a new low pressure area develops on the front and pulls it north ahead of an upper-level trough on Friday. Friday afternoon into Friday night is another period where there may be an increased risk of severe storms as another thunderstorm complex possibly approaches and moves through the area. Damaging straight-line winds, lightning, and heavy rain would be the main concerns here as well during this period, but some data indicates that there may be just enough wind shear for at least a lower-end threat of a tornado or two.
The front shifts south on Saturday, with showers ending early during the day as cooler and drier air moves in.