Yet another day with absolutely beautiful, sunny skies, and it's warm because of it. Temperatures areawide this afternoon range between the upper 70s and the lower 80s. For many of us, this is the warmest day of the year so far, and we have at least a few more May-like warm days ahead.
Clear skies continue into the evening and overnight as well. Temperatures drop back into the 60s near and after sunset. It's going to be a great night to eat dinner on the patio at your favorite restaurant or to grill out at home! We drop again toward the low to mid 40s by daybreak with light winds and dry air in place allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Southerly winds start cranking up a bit more going into Friday though, but we still expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs once again roughly between 75 and 80 degrees. There will be a bit more moisture in the air, however.
The beautiful weather continues into at least the first half of the weekend as well. Southerly winds continue to strengthen a bit as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to our east and a storm system ejecting out into the Plains. However, even though this means moisture continues to deepen as it moves northward from the Gulf, rain chances on Saturday look to stay off to our south. If you're looking to plan a fishing trip this weekend, Friday and Saturday are the best days with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s. We are still warm on Sunday as well, but we start to introduce the chance of maybe a few showers, especially by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.
The main storm system moves into our area on Monday. It will be another warm day with highs in the low to mid 70s, but with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and cooler and drier air in the upper-levels from the approaching storm system, instability will start to build. Between midday and the evening, we expect showers and thunderstorms to move through the area ahead of the cold front. While there are still some questions on the magnitude of risk and what the greatest threat types will be, it's starting to look more and more like there may be a few strong to possibly severe storms in our area Monday afternoon into the early/mid evening. While we can't yet go into too much more detail than that, we do think this is a case where damaging winds, small hail, and possibly even some degree of a tornado risk would be possible. This doesn't look like a higher-end threat; however, hints of a secondary surface low developing over west Tennessee/west Kentucky during the day on Monday may help increase the threat just a little bit. We're still working to iron out those details, and we will update the forecast accordingly over the next few days.
Behind that cold front, we're back to cooler air for the middle of next week with afternoon highs back in the 50s and morning lows in the 30s.