Clear and a bit cool this week. Warming for the weekend. Where are the rain chances?
A reinforcing shot of cooler air moves into the area this afternoon. You wouldn't be able to tell there's a cold front moving through, however, with skies cloud free across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures will drop quickly after sunset, already down into the lower 40s by 8:00pm and going for the lower 30s by daybreak. I can't completely rule out a 29 or 30 degree reading here and there in the colder valley locations and "hollers" across the viewing area.
The overall large scale weather pattern upstream remains rather quiet as well. Except for snow showers in the Northeast with the departing trough, the next weather system is all the way out on the West Coast, and it is in no hurry to get here. That means clear or mostly clear skies for the next several days, with no rain chances in the forecast as we head through this week.
The good news is that, after today, temperatures will be on the upswing as we head through the week. After chilly morning temperatures, we get a touch warmer for Wednesday with highs near 60. Then, flat ridging aloft shifts east for the remainder of the week and we get into a somewhat zonal pattern ahead of the next system. This allows temperatures to warm through the low and eventually mid 60s for Thursday and Friday, and by the weekend, we get to near 70 degrees. Overnight lows moderate as well, out of the 30s and into the 40s and even lower 50s as we head through the latter part of the week.
Our next chance of rain looks to be late Sunday into Monday as the system in the West ejects out and sends a cold front into the area. Southerly flow prior to that over the weekend will gradually but steadily increase the moisture across the area. Then, as the front approaches, we expect showers to move through Sunday night into at least the first half of Monday. Despite this being the heart of our fall severe weather season, the ingredients necessary for a severe weather threat very much do NOT look to be in place, although we always watch ANY cold front carefully this time of year regardless.