Breaking down mid-week storm chances, and a treat for us this weekend.
I hope everyone had a great weekend. I'm excited because cooler temperatures are in the near future for the Tennessee Valley. Of course, we've got to get through a few days of storms before we can enjoy some cooler weather. For today, temperatures will be near 90° with spotty storm chances. I think a good portion of the Tennessee Valley stays dry today.
Storm chances become much higher Tuesday. Widespread thunderstorms are expected, as a center of high pressure moves east and a cold front approaches. Storms should stay below severe limits but a few could be strong with gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning. The storms will develop after 12 p.m. and fizzle out by 9 p.m. Wednesday morning will be dry under a mostly cloudy sky.
At this time, short and long range forecast models are not in agreement about rain coverage for Wednesday and Thursday. I will explain a few models and what I think will happen as the cold front moves through. Let's start with our in-house Baron model. This model goes easy on the rain coverage, but the timing of the system in the Baron model is similar to the ECMWF model. The Baron model has spotty rain beginning around 2 p.m. Wednesday. Rain then picks up slightly in coverage by 5 p.m. and becomes spotty again after sunset. This model has the moisture from the cold front moving out by 2 p.m. Thursday, with rain chances Thursday morning and early afternoon.
Let's move on to the ECMWF model. Like I mentioned, timing of the system is similar to the Baron model, however this model is predicting a lot more rain. You can see widespread rain and storms predicted by mid-afternoon, drying out by midnight, and then redevelopment by 6 a.m. Not only does this model have higher intensity rainfall predicted, it also has the front hanging around the Tennessee Valley a little longer, with rain chances continuing early Thursday evening, but drying out by Friday.
Finally, we will take a look at the GFS model. This model is the driest of them all, but the rain coverage is not too far off from the Baron model. The GFS model predicts spotty rain chances Wednesday afternoon, with a break around 5 p.m., and then more spotty chances overnight. This model keeps late Thursday morning dry, with more spotty storm chances in the afternoon and late Thursday night.
With all that being said, I think we see scattered thunderstorms develop around 2 p.m. Wednesday afternoon, with chances continuing through the evening. I think rain becomes less widespread overnight, but picks back up after sunrise and through early Thursday afternoon. We will begin to dry out Thursday night and Friday looks fantastic post-cold front. Both temperatures and dew points will take a hit. We're talking highs in the low 80s this weekend, with dew points in the comfortable 50 degree range. Low temperatures Saturday night could even dip down into the upper 50s. I don't know about you, but I am more than ready for this cool down.