Awesome Labor Day Weather, Scattered Storms Return Midweek
You really couldn't ask for better Labor Day weather in the Tennessee Valley if you tried. We expect sunny skies across the area today. There may be a few high clouds at times, but nothing significant to speak of. Dewpoints will still be in the low to mid-60s today; so, humidity levels are going to be toward the lower side as well. That means the 86 to 89-degree afternoon temperatures we will see today will be a lot more bearable if you're outside. It's going to be a great day to grill out, jump in the pool, or head out to the lake for a swim one more time before fall weather starts moving in during the weeks ahead.
Tuesday will feature more of the same, although dewpoints will start creeping up just a little. Rain still looks to hold off, but it's going to feel a bit muggier outside, and this will also mean the overnight lows will be closer to the mid to upper 60s, jumping up a few degrees from tonight.
By the middle of the week, deeper moisture will be back into the area as subtropical ridging builds back in across the Southeast and Tennessee Valley out ahead of an upper low off to our west. That means that the muggy weather will be back in full force, and so will the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Those rain chances will climb just a bit as we head into Thursday, before becoming more isolated as we head into Friday.
The upper low out west then ejects into the middle of the nation and begins washing out as we head into the weekend. A weakening cold front (the one we've been watching for the past several days but has trended later and weaker each day) will approach the area (we're still trying to figure out if it will actually move through or stall out nearby and wash out) during the weekend, and this may help to make showers and storms a bit more numerous.
That same upper low is the disturbance that will be responsible for the big snowstorm in Colorado and Wyoming this week after temperatures there in the 95 to 100-degree range on Sunday and today. Definitely wild weather swings afoot in the middle of the nation! It's just another sign that the jet stream is getting active and fall weather isn't too terribly far away.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Seventeen has developed out in the open Atlantic and is headed westward. This system will likely develop into Tropical Storm Paulette during the day on Monday. A westward track is expected over the next five days, but the upper low this weekend getting absorbed into the jet stream over the Northeast and a jet disturbance diving out of Canada into the North Atlantic will open up a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This should allow Paulette to recurve out to sea before becoming any type of threat to the United States. We will be watching carefully for any changes to that thinking. We are just about to the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it shows no signs of slowing down this month. We will need to be on our guard over the next several weeks. Many of the classic Cape Verde storms will have a higher chance of recurving out to sea than impacting the United States, but that is not a guarantee, and we are also getting into the time of year when systems have a higher probability of developing closer to home in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The good news is nothing looks to imminently threaten the United States within at least the next seven days.