An Unsettled Pattern Continues to Take Shape.
We're about back to where we should be for this time of year - overcast, breezy, and a bit cool. Temps this afternoon have been hovering in the upper 50s and lower 60s, and I'd wager that this is actually not the highest we'll get to - in fact, I think our highest temps will be overnight!
This isn't a complete surprise, mainly due to the fact that, as we head through overnight, warm and moist air continues to surge into the Valley, daytime or not. This helps set the stage for the big mass of soaking rain that is approaching fast, and will line us up for some much needed precipitation through tonight. Initially, it mostly consists of light-to-moderate intensity showers.
As the core of the system moves closer, however, a few rumbles of thunder look likely as a line of fairly moderately strength storms moves eastward with the frontal passage. Due to this timeframe, a WIND ADVISORY has also been issued for NW AL until 6am Sunday for gusts up to 40mph. All and all, it'll probably just be a little noisy at times. No harm, no foul!
Thankfully, those showers and storms are out of here by tomorrow, and we have an okay day to look forward to - a little overcast, granted, but if you have a light coat, those upper 50s won't bother you at all. Depending on cloud cover, we could warm up a tad more, but it looks like we'll probably keep those clouds through tomorrow. It's nice sleep-in weather!
Through Sunday evening into Monday, a high pressure system begins to take hold of the environment, setting us up for a nice beginning to the workweek, with temperatures hovering near 60 once again with partly cloudy skies persisting through the afternoon Monday and into the overnight. That said, things are beginning to change in the forecast as we look further into the workweek...
Through Tuesday, warm moist air begins its surge into the Valley once again, and by Tuesday afternoon, we're likely sitting comfortably in the mid60s, with warm humid winds out of the south. To our SW in the MS Delta region, a severe weather event looks to take shape, and this same system is setting the stage for the chance of strong storms for us through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The timing continues to be in flux, but right now it looks like we need to pay attention to this overnight-morning period for the chance of strong storms in the Tennessee Valley. Also in flux is the true magnitude of this system - as the system evolves, our area could become closer or further to the area of concern for severe weather, so we're keeping a very close eye on it. Some variables remain in the air, such as if the environment is washed out before the event, keeping us calmer, or if we're clearer and more unstable. Models typically increase their ability to resolve these fine details with time, so we will be on top of it in the following day or two as more information comes to light. If nothing else, expect an unsettled 12-18 hours in that early-midweek timeframe, especially as we head into Wednesday.
Now for the big picture - a pretty bipolar week, in the grand scheme of things. Behind that midweek system, significant storms or not, a notable cold front will make itself known in the form of upper 40s/lower 50s by the end portions of the workweek, putting as back to where we should be. A few shower chances look to linger in that same time frame, as we seem to be approaching a fairly active, wet pattern heading into December. We're watching it all with the eye of a hawk!