Man, what a difference a few days will make! Just two days ago, we were bracing for another day of heat index values over 100 degrees. Today? We're sitting here at the midday hour and just getting into the 79-81 range in many locations! There are a few showers working eastward across portions of Franklin and Marion Counties of north Alabama as of the time of this blog post. They will continue to work eastward and will likely affect portions of Lawrence, Winston, Morgan, and Cullman Counties in Alabama over the next few hours if they hold together. I can't completely rule out a shower north of there across the Shoals, or the Athens or Decatur areas of Alabama, or even up into southern Tennessee. However, I think the vast majority of the rest of us stay dry today.
(Advance the images with the black arrow on the right side of the image above)
Futurecast shows our thoughts pretty well. The highest concentration of scattered light showers this afternoon looks to stay south of the Tennessee River across north Alabama, but we can't rule out a sprinkle or shower north of there. Check out the morning temperatures there for tomorrow! Many locations will be down into the lower 60s for Tuesday morning, and we can't completely rule out a few locations as cool as the upper 50s. Such a big change from last week!
The front responsible for the cooler air moving into our area stays off to the south. This keeps the more widespread and heavier rain to the south this week as low pressure rides along the front from south Mississippi and south Alabama up into the Carolinas. However, at times this week, we can't rule out an isolated shower or storm. It just looks like, for our immediate area, we aren't dealing with much rain through at least this work week.
The good news is that the excessive heat isn't making a return either. In fact, afternoon high temperatures look to stay in the low to mid 80s for the next few days, and only climb into the upper 80s through Saturday (although a few north AL/MS communities may start to flirt with 90 or 91 degrees). That 84 on Tuesday may be generous for some of us. Some of the computer model guidance tries to keep us in the 78-81 range for Tuesday afternoon.
A few of the school districts in our viewing area have started back already or are starting this week. However, for many of us, that doesn't happen to next week or beyond. That means many of you may be sneaking off to the beach with the family one final time before the kids are back in classes. If you're heading down there the next few days, it looks wet and stormy though. The front that moved through our area will be causing widespread rain and storms down there Tuesday and Wednesday. However, as low pressure shifts into the Carolinas and off the East Coast for the second half of the week, we see a return to more "normal" rain and storm chances along the Gulf Coast, the afternoon pop-up stuff along the sea breeze boundary.
In the tropics, we are starting to see large scale conditions become more favorable for development. However, nothing is of imminent concern out there. We do have a couple of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa that we are watching carefully. Long range models are starting to show signs that we will see development out in this area as we head deeper into the first half of the month. Our Hurricane Specialist Kory Pilet is working on another blog post that will be up soon, talking about global level conditions becoming more favorable for tropical development across the Atlantic basin, and what we can expect from the Atlantic hurricane season over the next few months.