The only Monday blues I want to hear about are the sunny blue skies overhead. Yet another picture-perfect fall day for us in the Tennessee Valley, and I have been loving every minute of it. Pleasant conditions will continue for the rest of today, with temperatures cooling off into the 50s tonight, and low to mid 40s by Tuesday morning. Clear skies continue through tomorrow as well.
Tuesday will be a touch warmer with highs in the upper 70s, but changes come Wednesday with a cold front. This cold front will actually bring us some much needed rain! The first part of the day will be dry but you'll notice clouds increasing. The GFS model shows much of the rain holding off until the early evening, with the main line of showers and a few thunderstorms approaching the Tennessee Valley before midnight. Rain coverage looks higher than we've seen in weeks, but I still think it's spotty enough for some folks to miss out.
The ECMWF model is a bit quicker with this storm system, pushing the main line of storms through mid-day rather than later in the evening. We will keep you posted on the timing, but right now we're leaning toward higher rain chances in the evening. A few thunderstorms may develop within this line of breezy rain showers. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the
entire Tennessee Valley viewing area in a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather. The main concern is very isolated wind damage. It will already be breezy out Wednesday without any thunderstorms, with gusts up to 25 mph. A stout thunderstorm definitely holds the chance to cause some minor wind damage.
I do think Thursday is mainly dry, but we're going to leave in a 20% chance for a few lingering showers early in the morning. By Thursday afternoon, sunshine will be back and here to stay for a few days. We remain dry through the rest of the forecast, however, we could see a stray storm Sunday with another cold front. We will keep you posted.