A few storms this morning. One or two more late today? Then, dry and hot...
Most of the widespread thunderstorm activity this morning has been focused to the east and northeast of our area, over the Cumberland Plateau. That more organized activity is moving southeast away from our area. However, a few widely scattered thunderstorms are developing over our area this morning, and I think these may fill in just a bit more over the next few hours before this activity shifts to our south and weakens through the mid to late morning. It's a warm Thursday morning out there! Most of us are still sitting in the upper 70s and lower 80s during this 4:00 AM hour with the muggy air pooling ahead of the frontal boundary approaching.
The Heat Advisory across the area has been extended once again into today, as expected. However, Lewis, Maury, and Marshall Counties in Tennessee have been removed for the time being. This is because drier air works in with the front today, slightly lowering how intense the heat index values will get this afternoon. The Heat Advisory continues for all of our north Alabama and northeast Mississippi counties, as well as our southern Tennessee counties along the U.S. Highway 64 corridor. This is where heat index values are still expected to reach near or over 105 degrees this afternoon.
Unfortunately, most of the models are doing a poor job with the thunderstorm activity this morning, and not just ours, but the more widespread stuff to our east. This means I won't have a visual aid to show you how the morning stuff will evolve as it moves across the area. But scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible areawide through about 9:00 or 10:00 this morning before things weaken and shift southward. Just note that the activity will be scattered, and not everyone will get rain.
We become partly cloudy to maybe even mostly sunny through the rest of the day, but a few more isolated showers and storms may form along the front as it moves southward this afternoon and early this evening, especially over north Alabama. High temperatures once again climb into the mid 90s, and a few of us may run into the upper 90s for daytime highs. The front brings in drier air overnight, and that allows our overnight lows by daybreak Friday to be a good 8 to 10 degrees cooler than this morning, in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
What isolated rain chances we have today will be shut off for the next few days as that frontal boundary shifts south, bringing drier air into the area, and as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds in. That means we're back to mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures Friday through the weekend, but the good news is that although we will be hot (with heat index values over 100 to 105 degrees), the model data for the past 24-36 hours has started trending a little less aggressive with the heat. It won't make a big difference, but any difference is a difference! A few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may sneak back into the area late Monday afternoon and Monday night, and again by midweek next week, but rain chances for the next 7 days will not be anything to write home about.
Some double-edged good news... the Atlantic basin remains quiet, and we don't expect tropical development in the Atlantic basin for at least the next five to seven days, if not longer. That's double-edged good news because, although we do NOT want any significant or impactful systems, having a tropical depression or weak tropical storm move through the area, as long as it doesn't stall out and produce flooding, would certainly help with our drought situation across the Tennessee Valley!