A few spotty storms today. A break Friday and Saturday. Then a wetter weather pattern returns.
After widespread showers and storms, a few that were severe, on our Wednesday, storms are much more isolated today. The main disturbance that has been moving through is starting to kick off to the northeast. That has allowed the weak surface boundary to shift to our east and drier air aloft to move in. That is drastically cutting back on the coverage of storms across our viewing area today.
High pressure temporarily builds in as we head into Friday and Saturday. This will lead to a mostly dry forecast for a couple of days. We can't rule out a stray sprinkle in southern middle Tennessee on Friday as the upper disturbance departs, but the vast majority of us stay dry. Sunshine will be more prevalent on Saturday, with highs climbing back into the mid 80s by the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms don't stay gone for too long though, making their return to the area by Sunday.
High pressure shifts off the Southeast coast as we head into the first part of next week, setting up a deep southerly flow across our area. Because of this, rich moisture moves north from the Gulf of Mexico to interact with incoming disturbances. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible each day next week, especially in the afternoon and evening, but it could rain at any time of the day. It won't be a non-stop rain all day or anything, and a few of you may squeeze in a completely dry day at some point next week, but as it looks right now, the overall pattern looks wet for next week.
As of now, the Atlantic tropical basin is quiet. We are now into the first few days of the Atlantic hurricane season, that runs through the end of November. We see no signs of tropical cyclone development over at least the next five days, but we are starting to see the first signs of consistent hints in long range modeling that things may start to heat up just a touch in the western Caribbean and maybe the Gulf as we head toward mind month. Still a long ways out, but we will be watching carefully.