A break in the showers for much of Wednesday. Rain returns Thursday. Watching early next week.
Highs today across the Tennessee Valley area have done the opposite of what you would usually expect. Our northern areas have been running in the mid to even upper 50s. As of the time of this blog post, we have reached 57 in Centerville, Parsons, and Jackson in Tennessee. We've reached 56 in Savannah. And Henderson has gotten to 58! Contrast that to the south where Russellville Alabama has only gotten to 48, and Hamilton has only gotten to 47.
That is because of cloud cover and even shower activity associated with a weak cold front that is moving through the area today. Most of the showers have been restricted to Alabama and Mississippi, but we have had a few sprinkles as far north as southern Tennessee at times as well. Much of the area has been overcast today, except for those northwestern areas this afternoon, and they were able to warm up because of being able to get a bit of sunshine.
This front will give us a break from the rain for much of Wednesday, and although there will be breaks of sun at times, the clouds won't really be going anywhere with the southwest flow aloft across much of the southeastern United States.
The next disturbance in the jet stream starts to approach after midnight Wednesday night, and this brings an increasing chance of showers for the morning hours on Thursday. By midday and afternoon, we may be able to get a break in the rain, before more steady rain moves into the area Thursday night before clearing out Friday morning. The heaviest rain and potential for localized flooding looks stay off to the south of our viewing area, but we can't rule out a heavy downpour at times, and some areas may see as much as 0.75 to 1 inch of rain by the time this disturbances moves out during the day on Friday. That front moves south of the area on Friday and stalls near the coast, giving us a break in the rain for a couple of days. However, that front will be waiting near the coast for its chance to come back northward as a warm front on Sunday ahead of the next storm system that ejects out.
As that next storm system comes out into the Plains Sunday night into Monday morning, the warm front will move northward across the area, putting the Tennessee Valley area in the warm sector. Dewpoints look to climb into the 60s on Monday, and temperatures look to climb into at least the mid to upper 60s for highs, and we honestly can't rule out lower 70s. Model guidance is trending toward that, and it makes sense given the unstable air coming north from the Gulf of Mexico, and dry air in the mid-levels that will move overtop the area, possibly allowing for some sun breaks during the day.
As the cold front approaches during the afternoon and evening, it's pretty likely that a round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area. It's way too far out and there are way too many inconsistencies in the exact evolution of the system to try to say yet if there is a severe weather risk with this system, but it looks increasingly likely that some of the important ingredients necessary for a severe weather risk will be there by Monday afternoon and evening. We will have to watch this system very carefully in the coming days.