A break in the rain today and Thursday. Snow chances Friday night?
After a soaking rain during the evening hours on our Tuesday, rain is now shifting out of the area with time early early on this Wednesday morning. There are still lingering showers as of the time of this post being typed, but those will be east of our area by daybreak this morning.
Clouds will hang tough behind this system for at least the morning hours. Temperatures to start our day will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As we head into the midday and afternoon, some of the clouds begin to erode and we see a bit of sunshine return. Afternoon highs climb into the mid to upper 50s. We drop back into the mid 40s to near 50 by evening and then again into the upper 30s and lower 40s for lows by daybreak Thursday, with partly cloudy skies continuing.
We have a good bit of sunshine on Thursday, and this combined with more of a southerly wind ahead of the next system allows us to climb into the 60s for daytime highs. We're even warmer ahead of the front during the day on Friday, but by afternoon, the next cold front will be bringing a sharp drop in temperatures and the next chance of rain. As we head into the late evening and overnight Friday, as the cold air deepens, it is looking increasingly likely that the rain will change over to snow for a few hours. While this will be a quick-hitting system and there will be limiting factors such as mild ground temperatures and such, it is looking more and more likely that there will be at least a bit of accumulating snow across much of the area overnight Friday night. And with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 20s after midnight into daybreak on Saturday, this means there's a good chance for travel impacts overnight Friday night into at least the morning hours of Saturday as well. It's still a bit far out to start talking about exact accumulation totals, but ensemble guidance gives a 70-80+% chance of at least 1 inch of snow over southern Tennessee, and a 40-60% chance of at least 1 inch of snow over northwest Alabama. The ensemble data does drastically decrease chances of snow totals reaching 3 inches or more though. Given the quick nature of the system and the limiting factors, a general expectation of a dusting to 2 inches is most likely, but we can't rule out isolated higher amounts in a heavier band somewhere. We will start narrowing down these numbers and any potential heavier bands over the next 24 hours.
The actual precipitation will clear out before daybreak on Saturday, and then clouds will move out with time, but it's going to be COLD during the day! Gusty northwest winds will be in place, and afternoon highs will only reach the mid 30s! We're down to the upper teens and lower 20s by Saturday overnight, but temperatures rebound to the mid 50s by Sunday afternoon, and then we're back to the low 60s by early next week. We definitely can still have wintry weather and cold temperatures in March, but it's very hard for the cold to last long as we head through the month of March, at least in the Tennessee Valley.