Thursday, April 19, 2012

Few Showers This Weekend/Really Nice New Week

FORECAST:

Friday: Increasing clouds with an isolated shower possible late. Mild. High 80, Low 55

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of intermittent showers. Breezy. High 70, Low 57

Sunday: Sunny. Somewhat cooler. High 67, Low 46

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday: Sunny. High 71, Low 44

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 47

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 51

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 79, Low 56

NOTES:

Check out the March Climate Summary for Huntsville and Muscle Shoals. It wasn't your imagination - it was unusually warm.

And I would urge everyone to listen to the latest WeatherBrains podcast, featuring meteorologists from around the country discussing the April 27th, 2011 Super-Outbreak as well as other recent severe weather events. You really see the human side of these guys in a rare way, and I was paradoxically comforted to realize that I wasn't alone in under-forecasting that day . . . it doesn't sound like anybody knew it was going to be that kind of 40-year-historic event until it was already happening. #mixedfeelings

DISCUSSION:




It was a beautiful day in the Tennessee Valley with plenty of sunshine. High here in Huntsville was 75. Low was 50. Very low humidity. Calm winds. Awesome day . . . I spent a lot of time outside. 

So we're between systems - the rain we had on Tuesday and the other front that is knocking on our door. Frankly, though, this second front is looking very minor. Earlier in the week, I had some concern about it, but . . . looks like we'll get some rain showers, maybe a stray thunderstorm, and that's about it.

Let's look at the details . . .


Winds shift more to the south tomorrow, and we'll get enough moisture ahead of the front to support an isolated shower threat. Instability and shear look weak, so I think we mostly just see rain - maybe a thunderstorm, but more of a chance of just a plain old rain shower. Rain chances should increase a bit overnight going into Saturday. High probably around 80, and that's why I say, might have some thunder and lightning in there as well.


The low pressure system is going to track well to our south, which is unusual for this time of year, is more like a system might do in winter, although the cold front will push through from the northwest. Here on Saturday we do have enhanced rain chances, but I'm not sure how "enhanced" I want to go with. I'm thinking 50% at most, probably more like 30-40% chance of just intermittent showers. Should be mostly cloudy though and slightly breezy, High around 70. I really am not concerned with any stronger thunderstorms and probably not any thunderstorms at all - probably won't have enough instability for anything but rain.



By Sunday the front has passed on through, and it's looking like a clear passage with little or no moisture left around, so I'm going with sunny skies and a temperature only in the upper 60's. Morning Low down in the 40's.

And temperatures will gradually start to moderate throughout the week, but it looks like we stay mostly sunny through Thursday.

Rainfall totals are actually starting to look quite negligible, like maybe a tenth of an inch on average, across the area. So yeah, I'm definitely going to go with low-end POPS when I go back up and type up the forecast.

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It is good to be the bearer of good news. And on that note, I think I will end this blog. Most of you already know, I didn't make it through college at UAH, and I'm probably going to have to just get a "real" job now to pay back all the loans . . . haha. If there is a way to get back into the weather stuff, I'll try it, but I'm also trying to be a realist. And I guess as a sign off, I just want to say that I've got friends in low places . . . and I love all of y'all to death. Thank you a million times over for supporting this silly little dream of mine, and it was fun while it lasted. 

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