Few Showers This Weekend/Really Nice New Week

FORECAST:

Friday: Increasing clouds with an isolated shower possible late. Mild. High 80, Low 55

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of intermittent showers. Breezy. High 70, Low 57

Sunday: Sunny. Somewhat cooler. High 67, Low 46

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Monday: Sunny. High 71, Low 44

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 47

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 51

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 79, Low 56

NOTES:

Check out the March Climate Summary for Huntsville and Muscle Shoals. It wasn't your imagination - it was unusually warm.

And I would urge everyone to listen to the latest WeatherBrains podcast, featuring meteorologists from around the country discussing the April 27th, 2011 Super-Outbreak as well as other recent severe weather events. You really see the human side of these guys in a rare way, and I was paradoxically comforted to realize that I wasn't alone in under-forecasting that day . . . it doesn't sound like anybody knew it was going to be that kind of 40-year-historic event until it was already happening. #mixedfeelings

DISCUSSION:

It was a beautiful day in the Tennessee Valley with plenty of sunshine. High here in Huntsville was 75. Low was 50. Very low humidity. Calm winds. Awesome day . . . I spent a lot of time outside. 

So we're between systems - the rain we had on Tuesday and the other front that is knocking on our door. Frankly, though, this second front is looking very minor. Earlier in the week, I had some concern about it, but . . . looks like we'll get some rain showers, maybe a stray thunderstorm, and that's about it.

Let's look at the details . . .

Winds shift more to the south tomorrow, and we'll get enough moisture ahead of the front to support an isolated shower threat. Instability and shear look weak, so I think we mostly just see rain - maybe a thunderstorm, but more of a chance of just a plain old rain shower. Rain chances should increase a bit overnight going into Saturday. High probably around 80, and that's why I say, might have some thunder and lightning in there as well.

The low pressure system is going to track well to our south, which is unusual for this time of year, is more like a system might do in winter, although the cold front will push through from the northwest. Here on Saturday we do have enhanced rain chances, but I'm not sure how "enhanced" I want to go with. I'm thinking 50% at most, probably more like 30-40% chance of just intermittent showers. Should be mostly cloudy though and slightly breezy, High around 70. I really am not concerned with any stronger thunderstorms and probably not any thunderstorms at all - probably won't have enough instability for anything but rain.

By Sunday the front has passed on through, and it's looking like a clear passage with little or no moisture left around, so I'm going with sunny skies and a temperature only in the upper 60's. Morning Low down in the 40's.

And temperatures will gradually start to moderate throughout the week, but it looks like we stay mostly sunny through Thursday.

Rainfall totals are actually starting to look quite negligible, like maybe a tenth of an inch on average, across the area. So yeah, I'm definitely going to go with low-end POPS when I go back up and type up the forecast.

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It is good to be the bearer of good news. And on that note, I think I will end this blog. Most of you already know, I didn't make it through college at UAH, and I'm probably going to have to just get a "real" job now to pay back all the loans . . . haha. If there is a way to get back into the weather stuff, I'll try it, but I'm also trying to be a realist. And I guess as a sign off, I just want to say that I've got friends in low places . . . and I love all of y'all to death. Thank you a million times over for supporting this silly little dream of mine, and it was fun while it lasted. 

Sunny/Mild Tomorrow

FORECAST:

Thursday: Sunny. Mild. High 80, Low 49

Friday: Increasing clouds. A little muggy, perhaps. High 80, Low 54

Saturday: Intermittent rain showers likely. Somewhat cooler. High 72, Low 58

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 67, Low 51

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 66, Low 45

Tuesday: Sunny. High 70, Low 47

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 50

NOTES:

Here's a look back at our rather warm March.

And a look back at the terrible April we had last year - I'm certainly not complaining about the one this year. 

DISCUSSION:

We saw more sun than clouds today with winds slightly breezy from the North. High in Huntsville was 75. Low was 63. And it looks like another nice day tomorrow.

Nice, mild temperatures across the region. High pressure moving on in. Things are good.

Northwest flow and high pressure continue to dominate tomorrow, and we should be sunny with a High around 80. Nighttime Low tonight or tomorrow morning probably around 50 or even a few degrees cooler perhaps. Very dry air.

Clouds increase on Friday ahead of our next front, and moisture increases a little bit, but I don't think it's enough for any rain. Even overnight, rain chances look minimal if not nil.

Saturday is still our best chance of some rain/thunderstorms, but the low pressure system is looking it's going to track to our south, and so for the time being it looks unlikely we'll see any stronger thunderstorms. Instability and wind shear look pretty weak. Areas to our south, especially along the coast, may see some of that. Here I really think it'll mostly just be rain, and maybe not as widespread as previously thought. It may knock the Low down into the lower 70's.

Frontal passage . . . northwest flow on Sunday . . . partly sunny skies with temperatures actually dipping down into the 60's.

Same deal on Monday, except even lower humidity, so nighttime low should be around 45-ish, mid 40's.

Another nice day on Tuesday. Looks like a High back around 70-73, and a Low either in the upper 40's or approaching 50.

On Wednesday, midweek, the high pressure starts to shift a little to our south and east, but I think we still stay mostly sunny. Temperatures should warm up though . . . I'm not sure what I'll forecast above, but by Day 7 it's always just a (marginally) educated guess anyway.

Rainfall amounts are now looking to be only about 0.5-1 inch for most of us, since the low pressure system is going to keep most the heavier stuff to our south.

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See you in the funny papers. 

Nice Couple o' Days

FORECAST:

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Mild. High 75, Low 52

Thursday: Sunny. Mild. High 80, Low 49

Friday: Increasing clouds. Warm/muggy. High 82, Low 54

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Saturday: Thunderstorms likely. High 77, Low 60

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of lingering showers. High 70, Low 55

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 67, Low 45

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 70, Low 46

NOTES:

Here is a look back at the March Climate Summary for Huntsville and the Shoals.

And here is a recap of the stronger thunderstorms we had on April 6th. 

DISCUSSION:

So we've had a pretty steady light rain today in the Tennessee Valley as a whole. This front came through without many fireworks, although the rain was more consistent and widespread today and more scattered yesterday - exactly opposite of what was forecast. Eh but anyway we had a High of 65 today in the wee hours, and we are now at 57 in Huntsville, which is our Low so far. Winds have shifted to the north behind the cold front and have been gusty at times. 

Still got clouds and rain going on . . . should be clearing out overnight.

Tomorrrow I think we see more sun than clouds, maybe a few clouds hanging around. Low tonight should be in the low 50's, and we should get into the mid 70's tomorrow. I guess an isolated lingering rain shower is possible in our northeast counties, but I doubt it. Probably just some lingering clouds here and there.

Thursday looks like a nice, sunny day, but the atmosphere should recover from the slight cooldown pretty quickly. Cool morning - Low around 50 - but making it up to perhaps as high as 80 during the afternoon. Great day to get stuff done outside.

Friday clouds should start to increase. Even overnight though, it's now looking like we stay mostly dry. Temperatures roughly the same as Thursday, except the morning Low a few degrees warmer maybe. I don't think the front actually makes it in here with any convection until Saturday. Maybe a rogue thunderstorm Friday night though - close call.

Saturday looks at least somewhat stormy. I'm going to go with "likely" thunderstorm chances, and actually have some slight concern about thunderstorms becoming severe.

At the moment, CAPE values look like they will only be about 500-750 j/kg, so this threat is marginal, but let's keep a wary eye on it just in case. It's that time of year. Timing may count here. If the rain starts earlier in the day, the atmosphere should stay more stable.

Sunday we should be cooling down behind this second front, but I think we see some lingering showers. Might take this one a while to clear on out.

Monday looks nice. Mostly sunny skies, probably a High in the upper 60's and a Low maybe even down into the mid-40's. Front is clear of the area, and we're under plenty of northwest wind flow ahead of this upper level ridge.

We'll warm up at least a few degrees on Tuesday probably, but still plenty of high pressure and northwest flow, mostly sunny skies. So it's looking nice tomorrow and Thursday, all right Friday, kind of a yucky weekend, but then nice again to start off the new workweek.

Looks like we might squeeze an inch of rain out of this next system - maybe closer to two inches in our southern/eastern counties. Of course these amounts may be adjusted as we get closer to the event. And we'll also continue to monitor for any chance of severe thunderstorms that might exist.

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See you in the funny papers.