Monday, October 20, 2014

Sunny/Cool Pattern Continues

FORECAST:

Tuesday: Sunny. Cool. High 72, Low 46

Wednesday: Sunny. Cool. High 68, Low 42

Thursday: Sunny. Cool. High 69, Low 39

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Friday/Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the low-to-mid-70's and Lows in the low-to-mid-40's.

Sunday/Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid-to-upper-70's and Lows around 50 or so. 

NOTES:

Here is a look at our Fall Freeze Climatology in the Tennessee Valley.

And on the note of climate, the Climate Prediction Center has issued its speculations about this winter.

DISCUSSION:



So we had another sunny day in Cullman. The High was 71. The Low was 42. We've barely had any clouds, despite that upper-level trough moving through.


Tomorrow that trough still looks like it will be well to our north/northeast, leaving us with ample northwest wind flow. That means sunny skies and temperatures not much above what they were today. Tonight is tough to call for temperatures. It's 54 degrees now. The Dewpoint is 51. We do have some moisture around, but not enough for much cloud cover. I think it's safe to go with a Low at least in the upper 40's, maybe a little cooler than that.

STill looks like Wednesday this develops into a Closed Low over the Mid-Atlantic states. And we have sunny skies and plenty of cool air filtering in on the back side of that trough. We may not even make it up to 70 degrees. Lows back down in the lower 40's.

The upper-level winds look a little more zonal on Friday, from the west, so temperatures might rebound just a little bit, few degrees. Still sunny skies.

Temperatures will be slow to rebound, though. High pressure should dominate our weather until Sunday and Monday, when we might bring back a few clouds as the winds aloft shift back to the southwest.

No rain is expected for this forecast period.


People from the Bay of Campeche to the Yucatan Peninsula will want to monitor this tropical low that is slowly moving east. It has a very decent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two or three days. Despite whatever you might see on other blogs or social networking sites, it is way too soon to know how this will develop or where it will go. And the more responsible bloggers/social networkers have made note of this. For my own part, I'm not even calling attention to wild possibilities by showing model "spaghetti plots" at this point. Those are worthless right now. If an Air Force plane goes in there to check this thing out tomorrow, then the models will have decent data to work with, for at least a starting point. They do not have that yet. 

+Matt Graves
@thatweatherdude 

Hope you're enjoying a more normal October weather pattern. See you in the funny papers.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Sunny and Cool Pattern Continues

FORECAST:

Monday: Mostly sunny. Cool. High 70, Low 43

Tuesday: Sunny. Cool. High 70, Low 47

Wednesday: Sunny. Cool. High 67, Low 42

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Thursday/Friday: Sunny. Highs approaching 70 and Lows in the lower 40's. 

Saturday/Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70's and Lows in the mid-40's. 

NOTES:

For those wondering what kind of winter we'll have, I don't dare hazard a public guess, but . . . the Climate Prediction Center does.

Next SKYWARN class is online, Tuesday evening at 6:30 - you can register here; also, Tuesday morning (around 6:15) marks the peak of the Orionid meteor shower - thanks to Jill Gilardi for posting that information.

DISCUSSION:


So we had a sunny day in Cullman with a High of 67 and a Low of 41. When we had any winds, they were generally light and from the North.


Tomorrow a trough moves through the area, but no moisture with it. We will end up with northwesterly winds aloft again and high pressure at the surface. So we should see mostly sunny skies and . . . temperature might get just a little warmer, up to 70 or so, due to winds aloft temporarily shifting more west than northwest as the trough moves through.

On Tuesday the trough has moved well to our North/Northeast, and we have good northwest flow aloft and plenty of sunshine. Temperature probably will not increase any due to the northwest flow and high pressure in place at the surface, despite the ample sunshine. Highs should top out in the lower 70's, and Lows should stay in the 40's. Hey, it's Fall.


By Wednesday that trough has become a closed Low over the Mid-Atlantic states. And again, we just have strong northwest flow aloft, high pressure at the surface. That keeps us clear and cool. The position of the Closed Low will probably make the northwest wind flow into our region even more pronounced, which means a better chance for cool air.

And there are nuances beyond that, for the rest of the seven-day period. Some time around the weekend we may get a dry shortwave trough in here. But there really isn't much change in the forecast. Just generally temperatures from 70-73 for Highs, Lows in the 40's and plenty of sunshine . . . pretty much covers all seven days. We probably have seen all the rain we're going to this month. October is usually much quieter and drier than it has been. (Now watch us get a stormy Halloween - jinx - just kidding.)

There is a disturbance over the southwestern Bay of Campeche that will have to be monitored for any gradual development as it moves east-northeast at 5-10 mph. It could develop further over roughly the next 5-7 days, decent chance of that.

And that system over the extreme Eastern Atlantic might be vaguely worth watching . . . just for fun.


Not expecting any rain for this forecast period.

+Matt Graves
@thatweatherdude 

Great time to be outside. See you in the funny papers.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Mostly Cool and Dry Pattern

FORECAST:

Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny. Somewhat cool. High 70, Low 50

Friday: Sunny. Mild. High 76, Low 45

Saturday: Sunny. Somewhat cool. High 72, Low 50

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Sunday: Sunny. High 69, Low 48

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 72, Low 47

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 48

Wednesday: Sunny. High 71, Low 49

NOTES:

We had a tornado and some very damaging winds in the Tennessee Valley Monday. And we had a couple more tornadoes spin up in West Central Alabama.

We have an online SKYWARN class coming up next Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. You can register here.

DISCUSSION:



We had an overcast day in Cullman with periods of breeziness. The High was 63, and the Low was 52.

Basically this Low is being stubborn and slow to kick on out of here. And we have had lingering moisture. Even did have a period or two of light rain today.

And I am using a crappy old computer for this discussion, so I'll skip the graphics, which I downloaded, but do not show up at all as options for uploading . . . might as well be nothing on the desktop.

Our weather isn't all that fascinating anyway, no rain expected, just fluctuations in temperature/cloudiness or sunniness. It's gonna' feel like Fall, to keep is simple.

The story is Hurricane Gonzalo, which is still a major hurricane and apparently headed right for the island of Bermuda. It is currently a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with sustained winds of 120 mph. as you might expect, Bermuda is under a Hurricane Warning.

+Matt Graves
@thatweatherdude

Thank you for bearing with me while I try to get this blog actually up and running again. See you in the funny papers. 

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Child Abduction Emergency (Montana)

Just happened to see this when about to write up a forecast . . .

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1016 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

AN AMBER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THE REQUEST OF THE MONTANA
DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE AND THE LAUREL POLICE DEPARTMENT.

* CHILDS NAME: HEAVEN ANGEL TORRES.

* CHILDS PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: 6 MONTH OLD HISPANIC FEMALE INFANT, 2
  FEET, 2 INCHES TALL, 15 POUNDS, BROWN EYES, BLACK HAIR, UNKNOWN
  CLOTHING.

* DATE AND TIME LAST SEEN: OCTOBER 13, 2014, AT NOON AT THE LAUREL
  WALMART.

* SUSPECTS NAME: REBECCA DENEE CASTRO.

* SUSPECTS PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION: 34 YEAR OLD HISPANIC FEMALE, 5
  FEET, 3 INCHES TALL, 140 POUNDS, BROWN HAIR, BROWN EYES.

* DIRECTION OF TRAVEL: POSSIBLY ON A BUS ENROUTE TO YUMA,
  ARIZONA. MOTHER DOES NOT DRIVE.

HEAVEN WAS ABDUCTED BY HER NON-CUSTODIAL MOTHER REBECCA DENEE
CASTRO. REBECCA HAS AN EXTENSIVE HISTORY OF DRUG USE AND HEAVEN IS
BELIEVED TO BE IN DANGER. MOTHER AND REBECCA ARE ALSO TRAVELING WITH
ANOTHER 3 YEAR OLD DAUGHTER, AALIYAH BROWN. TO VIEW A POSTER WITH
PHOTOS OF HEAVEN AND REBECCA, GO TO WWW.DOJMT.GOV. IF YOU HAVE ANY
INFORMATION ON HEAVEN, PLEASE CALL THE LAUREL POLICE DEPARTMENT AT
406-628-8737.

Storm Surveys So Far From Monday

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/13/14 TORNADO/THUNDERSTORM EVENT-UPDATE
1...

.UPDATE...CORRECTED TORNADO ENDPOINT.

.TUSCUMBIA/MUSCLE SHOALS TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    105 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  3.5 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   200 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               1

START DATE:             OCT 13 2014
START TIME:             729 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         DOWNTOWN TUSCUMBIA AL
START LAT/LON:          34.7318/-87.7029

END DATE:               OCT 13 2014
END TIME:               733 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           MUSCLE SHOALS AL
END LAT/LON:            34.7661/-87.6580

SURVEY SUMMARY: THE TORNADO INITIALLY TOUCHED DOWN IN DOWNTOWN
TUSCUMBIA...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 6TH STREET AND MAIN
STREET...WHERE TWO ROOFS WERE PEELED OFF NEARBY BUSINESSES. THE
BRICK FACADE OF A SMALL RETAIL BUILDING WAS TORN OFF ACROSS 5TH
STREET...AND ITS ROOF WAS PARTIALLY TORN OFF AND ROOFING MATERIAL
VAULTED INTO NEARBY POWER LINES. THE PATH CONTINUED NORTHEAST TO HIGH
STREET BETWEEN 3RD AND 4TH STREETS...WHERE A VERY OLD...LARGE PECAN
TREE WAS UPROOTED AND FELL ONTO AN HISTORIC HOME...CAUSING ONE INJURY
TO THE RESIDENT. MULTIPLE TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN THIS
RESIDENTIAL AREA...OR HAD LARGE LIMBS BROKEN OFF...AND POWER POLES
WERE ALSO SNAPPED ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. MANY MORE OLD TREES WERE
SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ACROSS THE ROAD ALONG COMMONS STREET BETWEEN
MULBERRY AND HICKORY STREET.

AT THIS POINT...THE TORNADO APPEARED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
CROSSED A LARGE CORN FIELD BETWEEN COMMONS STREET AND KING AVENUE. IT
SNAPPED BRANCHES UPON REACHING KING AVENUE AND TOPPLED BRADFORD PEAR
TREES ON THE GROUNDS OF SHOALS HOSPITAL ALONG BILLY BOWLING DRIVE. AS
THE TORNADO MOVED ACROSS GRAND...PASADENA...AND FORD AVENUE AND
FORD STREET IN MUSCLE SHOALS...IT DID SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE
TREES THROUGHOUT THE NEIGHBORHOOD. VERY MINOR DAMAGE WAS NOTED TO A
COUPLE OF HOUSES...BUT NEARLY ALL DAMAGE WAS TO TREES OR POWER
POLES.

THE TORNADO INTENSIFIED AS IT CROSSED FORD STREET AND MOVED INTO A
COMMERCIAL DISTRICT ALONG WOODWARD AVENUE NEAR 2ND STREET. THERE WAS
WIDESPREAD STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND A CHURCH IN THIS
AREA. NUMEROUS AWNINGS WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...ROOFS WERE PARTLY
TORN OFF OF STRIP MALLS...A FEW WINDOWS WERE BROKEN...AND SEVERAL
LARGE SIGNS ALONG THE ROAD WERE BLOWN DOWN. ROOFING WAS PEELED OFF OF
A USED CAR DEALERSHIP AND GAS STATION AND VAULTED ACROSS THE STREET
INTO A WOODED AREA AND ANOTHER NEARBY GAS STATION. POWER POLES WERE
SNAPPED...AND TWO METAL POWER POLES WERE BENT...DAMAGING THE TRAFFIC
LIGHTS AT THE INTERSECTION. THE TORNADO CONTINUED ACROSS 2ND STREET
ONTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY RESERVATION...WHERE IT SNAPPED
MULTIPLE TREES ALONG GARAGE ROAD. THE TORNADO LIFTED BEFORE REACHING
RESERVATION ROAD...AND LITTLE TO NO DAMAGE WAS NOTED THEREAFTER.
/SOME MINOR STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED FARTHER
NORTHEAST...NEAR GRANDVIEW DRIVE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...BUT THIS
WAS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TORNADO./

SURVEYED BY: CARCIONE/SAARI

.10/13/14 NORTH ALABAMA THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT...

.UPDATE...CORRECTED PATH WIDTH.

PEAK WIND:              100 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  50 MILES (APPROXIMATE)
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   4.25 MILES
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 2

START DATE:             OCT 13 2014
START TIME:             0412 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         1 E GOOD HOPE AL
START LAT/LON:          34.1224/-86.8277

END DATE:               OCT 13 2014
END TIME:               0508 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           5 S HARVEST AL
END LAT/LON:            34.7900/-86.7600

SURVEY_SUMMARY: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...CONDUCTED A SURVEY OF DAMAGE
THAT OCCURRED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON'S STORMS ACROSS SEVERAL COUNTIES
IN NORTH ALABAMA. DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SIMILAR TO A BOW ECHO...LIFTED NORTHWARD INITIALLY
IMPACTING CULLMAN COUNTY BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MORGAN...LIMESTONE AND MADISON COUNTIES.

EXTENSIVE STRAIGHTLINE WIND DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED FROM
GOOD HOPE TO CULLMAN TO SOUTH VINEMONT IN CULLMAN COUNTY. HERE
A VERY WIDE SWATH OF HARDWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. MANY
OF THESE TREES FELL ON HOMES CAUSING ROOF OR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
SOME BUSINESSES ALSO SUSTAINED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE OR UPLIFT IN AND
AROUND THE CITY OF CULLMAN. SEVERAL WOODEN POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED
NEAR THE BASE. THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN CULLMAN COUNTY WERE ESTIMATED
TO BE AROUND 100 MPH. THERE WERE TWO INJURIES REPORTED IN CULLMAN
COUNTY DUE TO FALLING TREES.

THE SWATH OF WINDS CONTINUED TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD WITH SPORADIC DAMAGE
NOTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL LARGE LIGHT AND POWER
POLES WERE BENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE NEAR MILE MARKER 326. HERE
A ROAD SIGN WAS ALSO TWISTED. SPORADIC MAINLY TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED
IN MORGAN COUNTY FROM FALKVILLE TO HARTSELLE TO PRICEVILLE. HERE
THERE WERE POCKETS OF HARDWOOD TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED AND A
FEW BARNS HAD MINOR ROOF DAMAGE.

AS THE STORM CROSSED THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WIND DAMAGE WAS
OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LIMESTONE COUNTY. SEVERAL
HOMES NEAR ATHENS HAD MINOR DAMAGE DUE TO FALLING TREES. POWERLINES
WERE ALSO TAKEN DOWN IN SEVERAL AREAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE
WAS OBSERVED ALONG HIGHWAY 20 NEAR GREENBRIER WHERE EIGHT POWER
POLES WERE SNAPPED NEAR THE GROUND. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAMAGE
IN LIMESTONE COUNTY WAS CONSISTENT WITH WINDS AROUND 70 TO 80 MPH.
HOWEVER...THE SNAPPED POWER POLES WOULD INDICATE A NARROW POCKET OF
STRONGER WINDS PERHAPS TO NEAR 100 MPH. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE WAS ALSO
NOTED TO A ROAD SIGN AND BILLBOARD IN THIS AREA.

FAIRLY MINOR WIND DAMAGE WAS NOTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN MADISON COUNTY WHERE POCKETS OF TREE DAMAGE WERE NOTED.
AS THE STORM BEGAN TO WEAKEN THE WIND FIELD EXPANDED OUTWARD WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGE REPORTS ALSO RECEIVED OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF THE
MAIN WINDS ACROSS EASTERN MADISON COUNTY.

SURVEYED BY: DARDEN

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1044 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/13/14 TORNADO EVENT - UPDATED
REPORT...
...NEW TORNADO TRACK IDENTIFIED IN NE LAMAR COUNTY...

.OVERVIEW...

AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST KICKED OFF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
AND CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WELL OUT AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SQUALL LINE WEAKENED AS
IT APPROACHED CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED
EASTWARD. THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND STRUCTURES
DAMAGED BY TREES. MOST OF THE DAMAGE APPEARED TO BE CAUSED BY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT THERE WAS AT LEAST ONE TORNADO.

.SHOTTSVILLE TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    75-85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  6.0 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   50 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             OCT 13 2014
START TIME:             4:43 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         5 NW WESTON
START LAT/LON:          34.2080 / -88.1077

END DATE:               OCT 13 2014
END TIME:               4:52 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           4 ENE SHOTTSVILLE
END_LAT/LON:            34.2878 / -88.0658

SURVEY_SUMMARY:

A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN WESTERN MARION COUNTY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 22/US HIGHWAY 78 NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSECTION OF
TAYLOR ROAD AND COUNTY ROAD 11. ALONG COUNTY ROAD 11...TEN TO
TWENTY PINE TREES WERE UPROOTED IN A CONVERGENT PATTERN...WITH
DAMAGE CAUSED TO A CHURCH BY FALLING TREES. THE TORNADO PARALLELED
COUNTY ROAD 11 BRIEFLY...CAUSING MAINLY SPORADIC TREE
DAMAGE...CONTINUING NORTHEAST OVER OPEN FIELDS AND FOREST. AS IT
CROSSED COUNTY ROAD 157 NORTH OF COUNTY ROAD 56...SEVERAL TREES
WERE UPROOTED AND TIN WAS PEALED BACK ON A FARM BUILDING. IT
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD WITH VERY MINOR DAMAGE...CROSSING COUNTY
ROAD 309 AND REID ROAD. THE LAST DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH OCCURRED ON
COUNTY ROAD 13 JUST WEST OF ALABAMA HIGHWAY 19...WHERE SEVERAL
PINE TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED RAPIDLY BEYOND
THIS POINT.


.HENSON SPRINGS RD TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    75-85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  1.1 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   150 YARDS
FATALITIES:             0
INJURIES:               0

START DATE:             OCT 13 2014
START TIME:             6:48 PM CDT
START LOCATION:         5 NNE BEAVERTON
START LAT/LON:          34.0087 / -88.0010

END DATE:               OCT 13 2014
END TIME:               6:50 PM CDT
END LOCATION:           2 SSW MARION COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE
END_LAT/LON:            34.0209 / -87.9893

SURVEY_SUMMARY:

A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY
NORTH OF BEAVERTON. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF HENSON SPRINGS RD AND CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY DAMAGE
OBSERVED WAS ALONG HENSON SPRINGS ROAD WERE 20-30 TREES WERE EITHER
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. MOST OF THE TREE WERE FACING NORTHEAST BUT
THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF CONVERGENT DAMAGE. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
WAS OBSERVED IN THE AREA. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO THE NORTHEAST
OVER MOSTLY FORREST AND OPEN FARM LAND. THE TORNADO LIFTED JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PIKEVILLE COUNTRY CLUB BEFORE ENTERING MARION
COUNTY. THE START AND END POINTS ARE APPROXIMATE DUE TO LIMITED ROAD
ACCESS IN THE AREA.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THESE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Much Nicer Weather On The Way

Tuesday: Showers lingering until at least early afternoon - rain could still be heavy at times. Cooler. High 69

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of lingering showers. Cool. High 65, Low 53

Thursday: Sunny. Cool. High 70, Low 49

Friday: Sunny. High 75, Low 45

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 75, Low 48

Sunday: Sunny. High 73, Low 46

Monday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 49

*

Well, temperatures have fallen into the 60's as heavy rains have fallen and the cold front is slowly pushing through the area. Obviously we had a very stormy Monday. Our High was 81. Our Low was 64 - in Cullman. We had a lot of damage from straight-line winds in the afternoon. Or I assume they were all straight-line winds. I suppose it will be surveyed later today, and we'll know for sure.

The cold front is slowly pushing through, and rain may continue quite a while overnight and into tomorrow morning, to some extent. Right now we'll all still under a flash flood watch. Jackson and Dekalb counties are under a Flash Flood Warning until 4 a.m. The threat for severe weather aside from flash flooding is over for the whole Tennessee Valley, though.

Preliminary reports show nothing but straight-line damaging thunderstorm winds across the Tennessee Valley, except a tornado near the corner of AL/MS/TN there. The sheer amount of straight-line wind damage is . . . way more than average, I'll put it that way. Guess with the light of day I'll see if all the reports/pictures I saw of town were embellished or not. I'm thinking probably not.


So today, Tuesday, the Low is going to move through the area rather slowly, and by early afternoon there may still be some rain in NOrtheast Alabama. High probably won't break 70 degrees.


Even on Wednesday a lingering shower or two is possible as this Low takes its sweet time kicking out of here. Highs should be in mid to upper 60's, cooler air filtering in, the moisture just hanging on.


Finally on Thursday the Low does move out of the region and makes way for higher pressure and northwest wind flow aloft. We should be sunny with a High around 70 or so, Low around 50 or even upper 40's in spots.

Friday also looks sunny. Upper-level pattern flattens out a little bit, but still some northerly component to the winds aloft. Highs should warm at least into the mid-70's, but with such little humidity Lows could reach the mid-40's.

Mostly sunny on Saturday, and looks like a weak/dry reinforcing cold front pushes through the area. Similar Highs but Lows probably rebounding close to 50 degrees.

Sunday, sunny with Highs in the low-to-mid 70s.

Monday we may warm into the upper 70's and bring just a little moisture back but probably not enough for any rain, just a slight increase in clouds.

In the tropics, we've got a weak disturbance 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles that will likely be sheared apart by upper level winds. And then we've got Hurricane Gonzalo.


A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the British Virgin Islands and Aguilla. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds are sustained at 105 mph, and movement is currently toward the Northwest. It is expected to become a "major" hurricane in the next day or two. And then by Friday it may take aim at the island of Bermuda.

Anyhow, weather around here is going to be so, so much quieter. And that is most welcome from my point of view.

+Matt Graves
@thatweatherdude

Here is a list of school delays and closings courtesy of WAFF-48. See you in the funny papers.

Transition to Flash Flooding Threat



Sorry for dropping off a while there. Had weather radio on alert, but looks like I missed a severe thunderstorm warning or two. Was knocking some rust off with this event I guess. The threat appears to have continued to transition more to a flash flooding threat rather than a severe thunderstorm threat, though.

Jackson and Dekalb counties are under flash flood warnings. And eastern Limestone and also Lincoln County, TN remain under flash flood warnings until 2 a.m. The warnings for Jackson and Dekalb go until 4 a.m.

And yes, the tornado watch has been cleared for the entire Tennesssee Valley. Marion County, TN remains under it, but that's just barely on the fringes, usually don't post warnings for them anyway. The flash flood watch supposedly goes until 1 p.m. this afternoon. Going to work on a forecast now. Really am sorry about nodding off, can't believe I slept through the weather radio, but apparently so, Twitter shows that I missed at elast one severe thunderstorm warning, maybe two. Even if the squall line moved faster than expected, this was a pretty long-duration event. Okay, time to write forecast.

Monday, October 13, 2014

Severe T-Storm Warning


8:53 - Another note on the tornado watch - in addition to Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin counties, now Marion, Lamar, Fayette and Pickens counties are being cleared from the watch, as the squall line is past and the severe weather threat is over. I think this squall line will be through the entire area by midnight. Exiting Northeast Alabama. It sure moved through faster than we thought. For now we have to monitor everything closely, for areas the squall line/QLCS hasn't cleared yet.

8:55 - The severe thunderstorm warning up in Giles County, TN is being allowed to expire.

8:56 - Alabama Power reports that they have restored power to more than 20,000 customers since 6 p.m. Still 32,000 without power statewide. They're doing the best they can, but whew . . . rough day, shall we say.

8:58 - Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is noting that a damaging wind threat will last into Eastern Alabama tonight, with a low-end isolated tornado threat as well, as the squall line slowly drags along.

9:05 - Areas like Hartselle, Decatur, Trinity remain under a severe thunderstorm warning for next ten minutes.



9:21 - No active warnings in the Tennessee Valley now. Severe thunderstorm warning for about eastern half of Tuscaloosa County and some more severe thunderstorms in Middle Tennessee. I only post for North Alabama and the bordering counties in Southern Middle Tennessee.



9:26 - Lawrence County has been cleared from the tornado watch, as the squall line has passed and the threat of severe weather is over there and points west. NWS Huntsville notes that the storms moving into the Huntsville metro are not severe, but that could change quickly, so be on your toes . . .



9:28 - If you have any storm reports or pictures from today, you can e-mail them to me, and I'll post them and/or share them with the National Weather Service.



9:37 - The squall line is now crossing I-65. None of the storms are currently severe.

9:41 - NWS notes that the part of the squall line moving into Madison/Huntsville is kind of strong but below severe limits, but to stay tuned in case it intensifies quickly as so many storms have tonight.



10:01 - Madison, AThens, Ardmore, you are under a flood warning. The squall line is starting to move into the Northeast corner of Alabama soon. The severe weather threat is over in all areas behind the squall line. All areas along and ahead of the squall line still have a marginal chance for thunderstorms becoming severe.

10:04 - Flash flood warning also for Lincoln County, Tennessee. Fayetteville, Lincoln, Powell, Lynch . . .



10:24 - From Huntsville to Arab, severe thunderstorm warning.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
847 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 847 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRUSHY LAKE...OR 8 MILES
  SOUTH OF MOULTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DECATUR...HARTSELLE...MOULTON...PRICEVILLE...TRINITY...HILLSBORO...
  BASHAM...CHALYBEATE SPRINGS...BANKHEAD NATIONAL FOREST AND
  DANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS
NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

Severe T-Storm Warning (TN)


8:47 - Colbert, Franklin, and Lauderdale counties in Northwest Alabama have been cleared from the tornado watch. The severe weather threat is over tonight for these areas.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
841 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 840 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEWISBURG...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEWISBURG...CORNERSVILLE...BELFAST...FARMINGTON AND CHAPEL HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&